The briefing examines how the forestry, wood and paper industry is performing globally and in the ten largest countries in terms of forestry, wood and paper output. The report also provides data for production, market size, imports, exports, industry costs, industry profitability and number of companies. The industry and market overview provide benchmarks against other countries in the region.
Delivery
This report comes in PPT.
Key findings
Growth is structurally reallocating, not accelerating
Global expansion remains modest (CAGR 2.1% 2024-2029), but value is shifting towards packaging, tissue and engineered wood, while graphic paper and commodity grades continue to structurally decline. Government‑supported construction and logistics‑led packaging demand are emerging as the most resilient demand pillars. Winning players must actively rebalance portfolios towards structurally growing end‑markets rather than rely on cyclical recovery.
Profitability is capped by excess capacity and demand fragmentation
Easing input costs have not translated into margin recovery, as weak construction cycles, overcapacity (notably in China) and limited pricing power constrain earnings upside. Margin resilience will depend more on scale, consolidation and mix optimisation than on cost relief alone.
Sustainability and traceability are becoming economic gatekeepers
Regulations such as EUDR and circular‑economy mandates are reshaping cost structures and market access, favouring large, integrated players able to monetise compliance and transparency. Compliance, certification and digital traceability are shifting from cost centres to sources of competitive advantage.
Trade is shifting from volume expansion to risk management
Tariffs, trade frictions and deforestation‑related regulation are increasing volatility, fragmenting trade flows and raising the cost of cross‑border exposure. Export‑orientated players must diversify markets, localise production where possible and treat trade policy as a strategic risk, not a background assumption.
Scope
Key findings
The industry saw stagnant growth with weakening financial viability
Global production remained dominated by China, the US and India
Costs eased in most countries on softening energy and raw material prices
Profitability softened despite easing production costs
Trade shifted to a lower growth environment with more frictions
Import demands driven by the packaging sector
Key trends shaping the forestry, wood and paper industry
Key trends uncovered
Macroeconomic/Industry trends
Higher market concentration in pulp, paper and paperboard than in wood and forestry
Number of companies declining amid consolidation and capacity rebalancing
Consolidation driving higher concentration
China : Steady production growth expected until 2029
China: Strong growth upstream, consolidation downstream
USA : Sluggish growth in production value amid industry consolidation
USA: Wood demand, digitalisation and capacity rationalisation shape industry outlook
India : Solid rise in production capacity to meet growing domestic demand
India: Urbanisation and infrastructure development drive paper and wood demand
Germany : Gradual recovery expected amid trade and ongoing economic headwinds
Germany: Shifts in global trade and regulation shape industry future developments
Japan : Muted growth expected on l ower demand and trade shifts
Japan: Sluggish demand, slowing trade and higher sustainability requirements
Canada : High exposure to the US market is a key challenge
Canada: Trade pressure, value shift and bioeconomy
Indonesia : Growing integration into the regional forestry, wood and paper supply chain
Indonesia: Scale, exports and sustainability transition
Brazil : Continued pulp mill investment and production growth
Brazil: Strong export growth, backed by sustainability compliance
Italy : Solid growth expected for both production and trade
Italy: European export hub for forestry, wood and paper industry
France : State-led investments drive steady growth
France: Regulation-led circular transformation
Definitions
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