Global trade fragmentation is pushing exporters to identify alternative markets beyond traditional destinations. This report introduces the Market Alternative Index, a data-driven framework evaluating 54 economies across demand orientation, market scale, import reliance and purchasing power. The index identifies priority markets where strong demand fundamentals and import dependence create scalable export opportunities.
Delivery
This report comes in PPT.
Key Findings
Economic power is shifting beyond legacy markets
Global GDP is forecast to grow by 3.2% in real terms in 2026. Expansion is increasingly concentrated outside legacy US, China and G7 markets. The G7’s share of global GDP is projected to decline to 35% by 2040, reinforcing a structural rebalancing towards emerging production-integrated economies.
Trade fragmentation is becoming a structural feature of global growth
Trade fragmentation and policy volatility are no longer temporary disruptions but are structural forces reshaping global commerce. Tariffs, export controls and bloc-based alignment increasingly determine market access. Export performance and investment decisions are now influenced as much by geopolitical positioning as by cost efficiency alone.
Production integration and trade alignment are redefining competitiveness
Manufacturing relocation and industrial upgrading are strengthening demand for machinery, components and intermediate goods. Economies embedded in strong trade agreements and regional value chains generate more resilient import momentum than consumption-led markets, reinforcing corridor positioning and regulatory alignment as central to long-term competitiveness.
Demand capture within markets is becoming more selective
Consumption growth is no longer evenly distributed across income tiers or categories. Even in high-growth economies, expansion is concentrated in defined urban, premium and infrastructure-linked segments. National averages increasingly obscure opportunities, requiring sharper segmentation and ecosystem positioning within markets, rather than broad-based expansion strategies.
The Market Alternative Index provides a structured framework for prioritisation
The Market Alternative Index moves beyond market size to assess demand orientation, import reliance, purchasing power and scale. By combining structural indicators into a single ranking, it enables exporters to compare markets consistently, sequence expansion decisions, and reduce risk from fragmented trade conditions globally.
Why read this report?
Key findings
Fragmentation and shifting demand power requires new export strategies
Global trade concentration and volatility create higher risks for business
Structural drivers reshaping global growth, trade and market attractiveness
Global growth is resilient, but power is shifting away from traditional markets
Geopolitical fragmentation and trade volatility are redefining market attractiveness
Demand capture within markets is becoming more selective
EU–India trade agreement signals strategic diversification beyond US-China reliance
Identifying the next export diversification opportunities
Export opportunity is driven by alignment across demand fundamentals
Chinese brands use Singapore to drive regional export expansion
Sustained import growth highlights opportunities for global exporters
Targeted opportunities driven by domestic consumer demand and supply chain shifts
India: Infrastructure and industrial growth drives demand for intermediate goods
India: Compliance and competitive pricing as critical factors for imported FMCGs
Case study: Lush re-enters Indian market with an export-led, digital-first strategy
UAE: Regional gateway driving high-value imports and re-export-led expansion
UAE: High-income, import-dependent consumers underpin opportunities
“Make it in the Emirates” initiative drives demand for B2B imports
Mexico: Nearshoring strengthens supply chains while reinforcing import dependence
Mexico: Import dependence underpins both industrial opportunities and risks
Foxconn builds AI-server capacity in Mexico to serve North American market
Vietnam: Import demand primarily tied to export-orientated production
Vietnam: Large consumer market with demand for imported high-tech and durables
LEGO anchors Asia Pacific growth through Vietnam manufacturing investment
Poland: Industrial integration strengthens role in Europe’s manufacturing supply chains
Poland: EU-based demand hub balancing industrial inputs and consumer imports
LG’s battery expansion drives upstream import demand into Poland
Strategic opportunities for exporters in a fragmented trade landscape
Questions we are asking
Market Alternative Index 2025 Results
Pillars and Indicators Used Explained
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