Cooking ingredients and meals remains overwhelmingly a physical retail-based industry. E-commerce is gaining but at a slower rate than before as meal kits sales growth slows. Affordability-focused physical retail is the key story, with channels such as discounters making big gains.
Delivery
This report comes in PPT.
Key findings
Convenience and affordability drive channel dynamics in cooking ingredients and meals
The channels that are capturing an increasing share of the global cooking ingredients and meals market are either focused on affordability, convenience, or both. Specifically, it is e-commerce models and discount-orientated physical grocery that are doing the best, though a great deal of regional variation exists.
The traditionally largest grocery channels are losing out to value-orientated ones
Supermarkets and hypermarkets, which collectively account for around half of total industry sales, are both losing significant amounts of share to affordability-focused rivals. Small local grocers, the other large component of industry sales, are holding share, due largely to being less exposed to markets where these emergent channels are significant.
E-commerce is slowing down but shifting to a more sustainable growth model
E-commerce sales have slowed down more dramatically in cooking ingredients and meals than in other parts of the food and beverage industry because of trouble in the meal kits category. The other components of the industry are gradually gaining in share online, creating a less dramatic but more stable pattern of growth.
HelloFresh is holding firm in an otherwise slackening meal kits category
Rivals to HelloFresh have largely fallen by the wayside in meal kits. The segment is unlikely to ever again see the penetration it enjoyed during the pandemic and there simply is not enough room anymore for multiple large companies in this space given the limited size of the current user base.
Historically important channels are gradually losing out to emergent ones
The long-term outlook for cooking ingredients and meals is one in which the supermarket channels continue to steadily lose share, likely joined soon by small local grocers as e-commerce and channels such as hard discounters become more geographically dispersed than they are today.
Key findings
An industry prioritising value and convenience in the shopping experience
A tenuous recovery from years of turmoil
Edible oils trails in value sales, but is dominant in importance to global consumers
Asia Pacific widens its lead as the largest region
E-commerce grows faster than offline channels but does not gain major ground
The industry’s leading retail channels are losing share to emergent ones
Non-grocery channels are unlikely to pose any significant threat to grocery
Pricing power is a recurring tension between grocery retailers and food brands
Strong growth figures in grocery mask a channel experiencing major challenges
Discounters are the biggest beneficiaries of this affordability shift
Meanwhile, luxury grocery rises as a result of wellness trends and wealth inequality
Turkish discounter Bim prioritises affordability for inflation-weary consumers
E-commerce sales fall off dramatically as meal kit sales tumble
Slowing growth from core markets but faster growth from newer ones
Meal kits are losing their dominant sway in e-commerce in the category
The US widens its lead as the largest e-commerce market for cooking ingredients and meals
In plenty of markets e-commerce is playing only a very minor role
Meals and soups is the largest category, but growth has stalled
Grocery retailers have a virtually insurmountable lead in e-commerce
Walmart is the leading retailer in both online and offline channels
Case study: Factor proves vitality is still possible in retail meal delivery
Future shifts in industry channels
Recommendations
Euromonitor Passport E-Commerce: Coverage and methodology
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