Top Five Trends in Nicotine

July 2025

The cigarette market is expected to see minimal organic volume growth in the coming years, but still presents opportunities, as companies can facilitate the transition to reduced-risk products, diversify their offerings, and innovate in relaxation and wellness, due to changes in societal attitudes, and the rise of herbal and functional products.

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Key findings

Decreasing prevalence and visibility of the industry

The global prevalence of tobacco is steadily decreasing, with these products becoming increasingly less prominent and accepted within mainstream culture. Although cigarettes were once ubiquitous, the industry is now moving towards marginal consumption, resulting in a decline in both consumers and interest.

Consumption polarisation and consumer sensitivities

Despite worldwide economic difficulties, consumers are increasingly split between high-end and budget products. Although the difference in the cigarette market remains, a growing number of affordable choices are emerging in once only premium categories like heated tobacco products (HTP) and e-vapour. The industry must find a way to maintain both value growth and affordability in the future.

Expanding landscape of nicotine consumption

Although cigarettes will remain the primary source of nicotine for many, a growing segment of consumers will adopt dual usage and explore various nicotine delivery methods. Consumers will prioritise convenience and less harmful options, while cost and accessibility will remain important considerations.

Regulatory pressures and advancements

From generational restrictions to category-specific prohibitions, the industry must contend with regulatory hurdles that reshape the make-up of vital strategic markets worldwide, guide growth prospects in reduced-risk product (RRP) categories, and possibly constrain expansion in certain sectors.

Beyond nicotine and the next stimulants

Industry participants and consumers are actively seeking effective alternatives to nicotine, and particularly tobacco, as their next stimulant. This pursuit involves exploring non-tobacco ingredients, herbal smoking products, and the integration of nicotine with cannabis. As a result, we will see a significant surge in experimentation and innovation within the industry.

Our expert’s view of nicotine in 2025
Key findings
Resilient industry performance despite gradual volume decline in cigarettes
Top five trends in nicotine
Top five trends uncovered
Once widespread industry is gradually becoming less mainstream.
Growth in smoking prevalence will be very geographically limited
The UK government is considering implementing generational bans
Changes will be driven by the shift to RRPs
Industry is pressed for revenue growth among volume challenges
Meeting consumer demand via price strategies
JTI acquires Ligget Vector Brands in the US to boost share in discount segment
Pricing ladders can help the industry to meet consumer demand
There is a growing demand for alternatives to cigarettes
Consumers are constantly moving between formats
Nicotine pouches continue their meteoric ascent in the US
Nicotine will continue to distance itself from combustion
Regulation of the nicotine industry is still top of the agenda
Illicit e-vapour market thrives in the context of a complex global regulatory landscape
UK: Category switching already happening ahead of disposables ban
The industry and regulators must collaborate to achieve the desired outcomes
Industry serves increasingly outcome-orientated consumers
World market for cannabis will reach USD49 billion by 2029
Sett offers a buzz without the connection to tobacco or nicotine
Functionality will be a key element to address consumer need states
Top five trends uncovered
Future implications

Tobacco

Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.

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