In 2026, global business will navigate resilient but restrained growth amid shifting trade, persistent cost pressures, and ongoing geopolitical and climate risks. At the same time, widening consumer divides and the rise of Generation Alpha demand urgent action to secure relevance for the year ahead and beyond.
Delivery
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Key findings
Economic resilience and improved policy certainty will support consumption growth in 2026
Global GDP growth is forecast at 3.0% in 2026, down slightly from 3.1% in 2025. Greater short-term economic and policy certainty, as well as lower interest rates and easing inflation, will help sustain business investment and consumer spending. Nevertheless, uneven growth trajectories and lingering trade risks mean agility and diversification remain top business concerns for 2026.
New trade policies are reshaping the global trade landscape
Global trade routes are being reshaped by shifting policies. International trade has become harder to navigate, as political and strategic considerations increasingly overturn established rules. In response, companies are prioritising resilience over cost savings, moving production closer to end markets or diversifying supply chains across regions.
Despite moderating inflation, upside risks continue to dominate
Inflation is expected to remain moderate in 2026, though several risks could push it higher. Tariff changes have forced companies to rethink supply chain strategies, including reshoring production, diversifying across regions, and shifting output to countries with more favourable tariffs. Commodity price volatility linked to climate change adds another layer of uncertainty.
Winning Generation Alpha starts with addressing their multi-level diversity
In 2026, Generation Alpha will be the largest, most diverse and digitally immersed cohort in history. Their fragmented behaviours, early brand exposure and global-local identities demand urgent, nuanced engagement. Brands must act now to build relevance, as loyalty will be shaped early and solidified across vastly different market contexts.
Fragmentation demands personalisation
Although global economic growth remains steady, and consumers are benefiting from rising incomes and easing inflation, the ongoing polycrisis and anticipation of future disruptions are deepening consumer fragmentation. Shifts in demographics, income and values are dividing populations into distinct groups with distinct needs.
Why read this report?
Key findings
2026 to be defined by resilient but restrained growth and generational shifts
Five trends shaping economies and consumers in 2026
Global economic resilience to continue, while growth remains uneven
Downside risks continue to outweigh upside potential
Case study: Reckitt turned emerging markets into its growth engine
Success in 2026 will require a dual market approach
Tariffs force US importers to rethink their strategies
Production and trade continue to shift amid tariff impact and market volatility
Strategic commodities and tech turn into political leverage
Zara diversifies risks and shortens lead times by nearshoring
Flexible and trade tensions-resilient production models take a lead
Tariff escalation drives higher costs in the US and globally
Supply chains shifts drive up labour costs
GE Appliances automates production in US to mitigate labour costs increase
Commodity price volatility threatens price stability in future
Tariff changes, relocation expenses and commodity prices may create price pressures
Generation Alpha defined by scale, influence and strategic complexity
Minecraft meal launch exemplifies powerful collaboration and Apha’s influence
Gen Alpha’s global divide: Why the future of consumption starts in Africa
Global youth, local identity: Navigating Gen Alpha’s behavioural diversity
Nongshim and the KPop Demon Hunters: Harnessing Gen Alpha’s cultural curiosity
Alpha rising: The generation redefining influence and affluence
Consumers are splitting, growth follows the fault lines
Lotte Himart’s PLUX private brand is designed for young singles and small families
Temu expands its global reach with its discount-focused third party marketplace
Connected, stressed and selective? The fragmentation of mindsets
Navigating behavioural contrasts with authenticity, adaptability and alignment
Opportunities for growth
Questions we are asking
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