Global growth is expected to remain resilient in 2026. Accommodative monetary policy, more agile supply chains and surging AI investment will sustain expansion, but not restore more robust momentum. Shifting trade policies and persistent geopolitical risks will keep growth constrained and uneven across markets. Emerging economies, led by India and ASEAN, are set to be the main engines of global growth.
Delivery
This report comes in PPT.
Key findings
Resilience to continue in 2026 amid rising fragilities
Global real GDP growth is forecast to remain resilient at 3.1% in 2026. On the upside, broadly accommodative financial conditions, supply chain agility and surging investment related to technology, including AI across North America and Asia, will help sustain the growth momentum. The outlook is fragile, however, as trade tensions persist and the geopolitical environment remains unpredictable under the second year of the Trump presidency in the US.
Sluggish growth in advanced markets vs solid performance in some emerging markets, led by India and ASEAN
Growth in both advanced and emerging economies in 2026 is expected to broadly match the pace seen in 2025. In the US, household consumption and AI‑related investment will remain the main growth drivers, though persistent affordability pressures are likely to temper momentum. India is set to record the fastest real GDP growth among major economies, underpinned by robust domestic demand and continued public investment
Global inflation to ease to 3.5% in 2026 on softer demand
Global inflation is set to ease further in 2026, driven by softer demand and lower energy prices. Advanced economies will move closer to central bank targets, though the US will continue to face above‑peer inflation amid tariffs and sticky services prices, sustaining affordability pressures. Inflation across emerging markets will moderate but remain uneven, with deflationary risks in China and food‑led pressures in India. While disinflation will support real incomes, consumer sentiment will hinge on labourmarket resilience and geopolitical uncertainty.
Resilient growth, increasing fragilities
Key findings
Key country insights
Global growth outlook: Sustained momentum despite elevated unpredictability
Global inflation outlook: Easing inflation to support household spending
Geopolitical tensions, trade war and AI bubble are key risks to global growth
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter: AE
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter: EMDE
Inflation forecasts
Central bank interest rates quarterly forecasts
Global scenario map: Trade-related uncertainty dominates the risk landscape
Global Risk Index scores and rankings
Trump Total Agenda scenario: The risk of an escalated trade war remains
Trump Tariff Easing scenario: Tariff rollback and policy stability can revive confidence
US: Sustained growth expected on resilient consumption and AI-related investment
US: Inflation to stay stable, but remains higher than in other advanced markets
US: Consumer confidence remains low amid uncertainty and affordability concerns
US: Tariff policy and trade realignment pose risks for growth
China: Growth expects to soften in 2026, after a stronger-than-expected 2025
China: Mixed-speed recovery shapes near-term manufacturing and consumer outlook
China: Outlook challenged by structural risks and global political uncertainty
India: Solid private consumption and investment drive growth
India: Resilience amid trade and commodity price risks
Japan: Steady outlook as domestic resilience offsets external economic shocks
Japan: Industries could see divergent outcomes under shifting global risk conditions
Indonesia: Outlook strengthens on domestic resilience and revived investment
Eurozone: Consumption supports growth as exports and investments lag
Eurozone: Services-led consumer spending supports economic growth
Eurozone: Trade risks persist amid US tariff tensions and China competition
UK: Modest growth amid trade uncertainty while inflation is expected to ease
UK: High vulnerability due to significant export exposure, diversification underway
Russia: Subdued growth as energy prices soften and potential export decline
Brazil: High rates temper economic outlook despite cooling inflation
Brazil: Volatile trade landscape and fragile fiscal outlook may disrupt growth
Mexico: Fragile recovery after a trade war-led slowdown
Baseline and alternative scenarios : Q1 2026
Alternative scenarios (continued): Q1 2026
Alternative scenarios (continued): Q1 2026
Global Economic Forecasts reports: Helping businesses prepare for economic shifts
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