Rising concern over ultra-processed foods (UPFs) is reshaping the foods landscape. This report examines the issue in detail, exploring where staple foods are most impacted by negative consumer sentiment, and – most importantly – which foods stand to benefit. This report also outlines UPF consumption across key markets, determines what the consumer thinks of the issue and examines what the future holds, identifying how food producers, brands and retailers can benefit from clean label demand.
Delivery
This report comes in PPT.
Key findings
UPF consumption varies, but does not straightforwardly link to low income
Globally, ultra-processed foods (UPFs) sit at just over 21% of kcal per capita, per day. However, this level is much higher in regions such as North America (54%), Australasia (42%) and Western Europe (35%). Analysing affordability reveals that, in general, consumers from countries with higher levels of disposable incomes buy more UPFs as a percentage of their diet.
Many now avoid processed foods and appreciate that UPFs are unhealthy
27% globally say they are trying to limit their intake of processed foods; amongst people trying to improve their eating habits, that figure rises to 49%. Cross-referencing consumers’ self-rating of how healthy their diet is against the percentage of UPFs they eat reveals that UPFs’ poor health profile is widely understood.
There are opportunities for smaller brands and through actions like targeting parents
Smaller brands can benefit by positioning their products as non-ultra-processed alternatives to mass-produced offerings from larger rivals; parents seem a key target group as their food preferences for their children align strongly with non-UPF claims (no preservatives, organic, “all natural” etc).
There are winners and losers across staple food categories as a result of UPF concern
Losing categories include breakfast cereals and meat alternatives, which suffer a strongly negative impact from increased knowledge and fear of UPFs. Others, such as processed fruit, processed vegetables and rice are winners in that they are seen as positive choices. A number of categories face mixed fortunes, such as baked goods, processed meat and seafood, pasta and noodles.
Natural and organic staple foods will see significant growth in future
Looking at natural and organic staple food sales over a 10-year period – incorporating both the historic period and 5-year forecasts to 2029 – indicates that the increase in sales for these variants is particularly strong; organic staple food sales are forecast to grow by 79% by 2029, with natural staple food sales set to increase by 103%.
Why read this report?
Key findings
Ultra-processed foods are everywhere
The Nova classification
Key examples of the ultra-processed food (and drink) landscape
East-West UPF split is apparent
Most UPFs in the diet come from staple foods
Growth in UPFs is continuing
UPF affordability is not the issue
Build high taxation into forecasts/planning now
Beyond Nova: WHO advice and USDA/FDA definition incoming
Beyond Nova: Apps offer quick – but differing – judgments
Over one in four globally now avoid processed foods…
…and doing so is seen as key to improving diet
Cooking reluctance is growing, however
Labelling regulation looms
Texas enacts “not recommended for human consumption” warnings
Ingredient preferences indicate specifics
Aim for parents with "natural" staple foods
Industry emphasises simplicity and importance of processing
New processing techniques will be necessary – as will justifications
Benefits will need to meet more claims in the clean label era
Reformulation hits artificial colours, sweeteners and bulking agents
Winning and losing through consumer perception
Bread variations mean a mixed picture for baked goods
Breakfast cereals continue to face increasing health scepticism
Position in opposition to reach concerned consumers
M&S launches (ultra) low ingredient cereals
Processed fruit and vegetables see benefit
Abel & Cole emphasises no “nasty stuff”
Mixed picture for processed meat and seafood
Meat and seafood substitutes face harsh criticism
Vivera moves into "Protein Bites"
Rice, pasta and noodles are seen as healthier than many others
Staple foods: The overall size of the prize
Growth to come through natural and organic variants
Healthy growth for staple foods that meet clean label concerns
Awareness raising need not be a priority – or a drain on resources
The Colombian experience suggests reformulation in future
Recommendations/opportunities for growth
Evolution of processed food concern
Questions we are asking
Appendix: Full Nova definition of UPFs
Staple Foods
NOTE: Couscous, polenta and quinoa are excluded from staple foods.
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