Cooking ingredients and meals faces a challenging outlook in 2026 and beyond between price pressures, consumer frustrations and trade conflicts. Growth opportunities remain, however, in areas like natural wellness, convenience that reflects modern lifestyles, and introducing consumers to diverse global flavours.
Delivery
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Key findings
Difficulty in growing volumes will be a core industry challenge
High prices, trade wars, tough demographic outlooks, GLP-1 usage and the risk of recession all weigh upon an industry that has had difficulties growing volumes since the COVID-19 pandemic boom ended. This will be particularly true for companies reliant on developed markets, as most volume potential is now found in developing regions.
Price remains top of mind for both consumers and companies
Companies facing volume struggles are eager to try to focus on value instead. This impulse, however, runs into a consumer base that is frustrated by the cost of living in general and with rises in food prices specifically. A narrowing window for premiumisation, a growing reliance on higher income consumers, and a shift in retail channels are some of the implications of this.
In an unstable world, people look for simplicity and ease in their food
There are some things consumers remain willing to spend on, and convenience is one of them. People’s lives are stressful, and while they might like to be cooking more, they tend in practice to gravitate towards convenient, time-saving options.
Wellness trends are favouring products with a natural, clean positioning
Even as they look to save money, consumers are prioritising their health. When it comes to cooking ingredients and meals, specifically, this will take the form of a search for cleaner, more natural products, as concern with the health effects of ultra-processed foods grows. Other important wellness trends include rising demand for protein, and the impact of GLP-1s.
Global flavour trends remain important, even as globalisation runs into problems
Globalisation as a macroeconomic phenomenon is going through a tough period. As a flavour phenomenon though, it remains as strong as ever. Consumers are seeking out an ever-wider array of flavours (Korean, for example) from around the globe. Their desire to experience the world has not diminished, even though the political winds are shifting.
Our expert’s view of cooking ingredients and meals in 2025
Key findings
Cooking ingredients and meals navigates a world in turmoil
Top five trends in cooking ingredients and meals
Top five trends uncovered
Volumes remain under pressure from multiple sides
General Mills on the importance of volume
Developed and developing markets are moving on very different tracks
Unit sizes are likely to shrink to help mitigate volume struggles
Alicorp adds smaller package for value-focused consumers
Stocked launches new a new format of smaller-portioned ready meals
Growing volumes in a challenging environment
Cost remains the dominant concern for consumers
ConAgra on pricing challenges
These concerns will limit possibilities in premiumisation of any type
Consumer shopping increasingly favours value-focused channels
Private label makes big gains in both sales and reputation for quality
A minority of high-income consumers remain willing to spend freely
Celebrity premium honey As Ever sells out nearly instantly
Amazon announces new affordability-focused private grocery label
Understanding pricing concerns will be key to moving the industry forwards
Time-pressed consumers struggle to balance multiple priorities
The share of consumers cooking regularly is largely stalled out
Smaller households are shaping how people are cooking (or not cooking)
Slicey launches an air fryer-ready frozen pizza
Nongshim launches a sauce for changing consumer occasions
Providing simplicity and efficiency in a time-pressed culture
Wellness spending holds even as consumers pull back
The push for natural and GLP-1 alignment is showing in the product mix
The ultra-processed foods debate has serious consequences for the industry
Kraft Heinz on the importance of healthier products
Quest expands its protein empire into condiments
Olive oil moves into the wellness shot space
Aligning the industry with the natural wellness push
Geopolitics go in one direction, taste buds go in another
Foodservice is often where new flavours are first encountered
Fewer goods are likely to cross borders in the coming years
Lloyd & Melón brings Korean flavours to Norway
Kraft emphasises local Canadian sourcing
Borders are tightening, but consumer tastes are not
Future implications
Opportunities for growth
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