Retail in Baltic States: Three Key Trends for 2024

November 2024

This report covers the retail sector in the Baltic States. Euromonitor International’s definition of the region includes the following countries:

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Overview:

Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Retail industry in Estonia with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.

Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.

Data and analysis in thsi report provides detailed qualitative analysis for the folloiwng regions, with detailed quantitative analaysis provided for all indivdiual countries within the regional groupings:

  • The Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
  • Frontier Markets in Southeast Europe – Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, North Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia
  • Central Asia and the Caucasus – Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
  • Frontier Markets in South Asia – Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka 
  • Frontier Markets in Southeast Asia – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
  • Central America and the Caribbean – Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Panama, Costa Rica
  • Frontier Markets in South America – Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay
  • Frontier Markets in the Middle East and North Africa – Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Tunisia
  • Frontier Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa – Angola, Cote d Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Cameroon, Tanzania, Uganda

Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to the following key categories, where applicable:

  • Grocery Retailers
  • Non-Grocery Retailers
  • Retail E-Commerce
  • Direct Selling
  • Vending

If you're in the Retail industry in Estonia, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.

The Retail in Estonia report includes:

  • Analysis of key retail trends
  • Detailed segmentation of histroic retail value sales by channel
  • Company and brand market shares (retail value sales)
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country

This report answers:

  • What is the market size of Retail in Estonia?
  • Which are the leading retailers in Retail in Estonia?
  • How are products distributed in Retail in Estonia?
  • How is the rise of e-commerce and the expansion of modern grocery retail impacting traditional retail?
  • How significant are discounters and private label in Estonia?
  • To what extent are sales shifting towards digital channels?​
  • What is the long-term outlook for bricks-and-mortar? ​
  • How is macroeconomic and political uncertainty affecting the retail industry?​
  • What types of retailers are seeing the fastest growth in digital sales?​
  • What is the future of retail?

Retail in Baltic States: Three Key Trends for 2024

Baltic States: Overview
Chart 1 Retail in Context 2023
Chart 2 Retail in the Context of Eastern Europe
Retail in 2023: The big picture
Chart 3 Retail Sales 2018-2028
Lithuania records the highest sales of any country in the Baltic States
Chart 4 Retail Channel Breakdown by Country 2018-2023
While retail e-commerce grows rapidly, offline retail remains stagnant
Chart 5 Retail Breakdown by Channel 2018-2023
Retailers are attempting to balance profitability with providing value to consumers
Retail e-commerce sales growth is slowing, but the channel’s potential remains strong
Retailers implement sustainability initiatives in response to growing customer demand and government attention
Grocery retailers are well represented in the upper rankings of retail players in the Baltic States
Chart 6 Top 10 Retail Companies 2018-2023
International retailers demonstrate remarkable capacity for expansion
Chart 7 Top Companies by Sales Growth 2018-2023
Lidl owner Schwarz Group is capturing the significantly larger share of the retail grocery market
Chart 8 Grocery Retailers: Top Companies 2018-2023
Home products specialists are booming in the region
Chart 9 Non-Grocery Retailers: Top Companies 2018-2023
Local e-commerce players are losing share to regional and international competitors
Chart 10 Retail E-Commerce: Top Companies 2018-2023
Direct sellers primarily offering beauty products are experiencing significant market share declines
Chart 11 Direct Selling: Top Companies 2018-2023
What next for retail?
Chart 12 The Evolution of Retail 2018-2028
Chart 13 Absolute Growth by Channel 2018-2028
Latvia’s retail market is expected to grow the most rapidly of the Baltic States
Chart 14 Retail: Country Sizes and Growth by Channel 2018-2028
E-commerce is expected to continue to be the driver of retail sales growth in the Baltics
Chart 15 Retail: Channel Sizes and Growth by Country 2018-2028
Estonia
Chart 16 Estonia: Company Shares of Grocery Retailers
Chart 17 Estonia: Grocery Retailers Channel Breakdown 2023 and % CAGR 2018-2023
Chart 18 Estonia: Company Shares of Non-Grocery Retailers
Chart 19 Estonia: Non-Grocery Retailers Channel Breakdown 2023 and % CAGR 2018-2023
Chart 20 Estonia: Company Shares of Retail E-Commerce
Chart 21 Estonia: Company Shares of Direct Selling
Latvia
Chart 22 Latvia: Company Shares of Grocery Retailers
Chart 23 Latvia: Grocery Retailers Channel Breakdown 2023 and % CAGR 2018-2023
Chart 24 Latvia: Company Shares of Non-Grocery Retailers
Chart 25 Latvia: Non-Grocery Retailers Channel Breakdown 2023 and % CAGR 2018-2023
Chart 26 Latvia: Company Shares of Retail E-Commerce
Chart 27 Latvia: Company Shares of Direct Selling
Lithuania
Chart 28 Lithuania: Company Shares of Grocery Retailers
Chart 29 Lithuania: Grocery Retailers Channel Breakdown 2023 and % CAGR 2018-2023
Chart 30 Lithuania: Company Shares of Non-Grocery Retailers
Chart 31 Lithuania: Non-Grocery Retailers Channel Breakdown 2023 and % CAGR 2018-2023
Chart 32 Lithuania: Company Shares of Retail E-Commerce
Chart 33 Lithuania: Company Shares of Direct Selling

DISCLAIMER

Retail

Retail is the sale of new and used goods to consumers from a business for personal or household consumption from retail outlets, kiosks, market stalls, vending, direct selling and e-commerce. Retail is the aggregation of Retail Offline and Retail E-Commerce. Excludes specialist retailers of motor vehicles, motorcycles, vehicle parts. Also excludes fuel sales, foodservice sales, rental transactions, and wholesale sales (e.g. Cash and Carry). Sales value excluding or including VAT/Sales Tax. Retail also excludes the informal retail sector. Informal retailing is retail trade which is not declared to the tax authorities. Informal retailing encompasses (a) sales generated by unregistered and unlicensed retailers, i.e. retailers operating illegally, and (b) any proportion of sales generated by a registered and licensed retailer that is not declared to the tax authorities. Unregistered and unlicensed retailers operate predominantly (although not exclusively) as street hawkers or operate open market stalls, as these channels are harder for the authorities to monitor than permanent outlets. Activities in the illegal market, which is usually understood to refer to trade in illegal, counterfeit or stolen merchandise, are included within our definition of informal retailing. Activities in the “grey market”, which is usually understood to refer to trade in legal merchandise that is sold through unauthorized channels – for example cigarettes bought legally in another country, legally imported, but sold at lower prices than in authorized channels – will be included as informal retailing if no tax is paid on sale by the retailer. However if the retailer pays tax – for example on cigarettes bought legally in another country but sold at a lower price than standard – the sale is included within formal retail.

See all of our definitions
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This report originates from Passport, our Retail research and analysis database.

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