Although public finances are sustainable, corruption remains a major issue and international relations are under considerable pressure. Economic momentum is set to be weak, as another wave of sanctions have been renewed and the massive depreciation of the currency has maintained an upward trajectory on prices. Consumption will be driven by population expansion and urbanisation, but Iran is ageing rapidly. Mobile adoption is robust and 5G rollout is accelerating, but e-commerce trails peers.

A stable and competitive business environment is vital to operate efficiently and attract inward investment. Businesses can assess these factors alongside challenges such as corruption, political instability and terrorism to understand the strengths and weaknesses of an operating environment and for strategic investment decisions. Transport infrastructure, ICT readiness and labour force dynamics will also identify potential issues with a supply chain and the level of workforce skills.

The report examines the economic landscape of Iran and provides information on major monetary indicators, foreign trade and government finance. The economy expanded in real terms in 2024, driven by exports, private consumption and government spending. However, a global economic slowdown, increasing geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation as well as tight financial conditions pose risks to the country’s economic outlook.

The number of households is set to increase moderately, while the average household size will shrink in Iran over 2024-2029. Couples with children will remain the dominant household type but the fastest household expenditure growth is forecast to be recorded by single person households. In addition, the share of households living in urban areas is projected to expand to 80.2% by 2029.

Insight into income, wealth and expenditure of consumers and households is vital in helping businesses make strategic decisions with regards to which country (or even which region within a country) to enter, which consumer segment to target, which products or services to market, and at which price point. Other factors such as the size and expansion of the middle class and income inequality are also important in helping companies gauge the potential of a country market.

The population of Iran is predicted to increase by 8.7%, due to changes in net migration and natural change, standing at a total of 99.5 million citizens by 2040. The birth rate in Iran is anticipated to drop between 2024 and 2040. Middle Youth (aged 30-44) will represent the largest portion of the population by 2040. Generational cohorts in Iran will continue to influence consumer expenditure based on their specific purchasing habits and unique demands.

The group of major emerging economies, BRICS, has seen a rapid rise in economic power during recent decades. As the group expanded further to include more members in recent years, its growing economic and demographic influence is reshaping global trade, investment and consumer market dynamics. This report explores the implications of BRICS expansion for the global economic and consumer landscapes, highlighting key risks and opportunities for businesses.

Tehran and Ahvaz are Iran’s most economically active cities, due to their positions in terms of population size, disposable income and labour markets. Meanwhile, Karaj holds the highest potential for future economic expansion thanks to expected GDP growth. However, challenges for the country’s cities will persist in the near term due to the continuing economic challenges. In the longer run, Iran’s cities are set to face burdens on infrastructure, due to large and increasing populations.

The commodities country overview provides comprehensive data on production, consumption and price trends on key commodities markets. The commodities overview in Iran covers production and consumption trends in agricultural commodities, energy products, electricity, metal products as well as an overview of key economic and business environment trends.

The global energy crisis has had far-reaching implications for consumers, businesses and entire economies, highlighting the importance of the global energy transition and boosting energy efficiency, while creating opportunities for innovation and investments in renewables and green technologies. Timely and effective business strategy adjustments and contingency plans are key to cope with energy price fluctuations and cost pressures, and to address the changing consumer behaviour.

The energy industry recovered in 2021, given the rapidly increasing crude oil and natural gas prices, and lifting lockdown measures. Reopening global economies allowed for increasing mobility and industrial and commercial activities, stimulating demand for energy products. The year also brought increased focus on developing the industry’s sustainability goals. The global demand for fossil fuels is set to continue expanding over the medium-term outlook, driven by the expanding economies in Asia P