Hot drinks remains a large, everyday category worth USD201 billion and 640 billion brewed litres in 2025. Value growth is driven more by price and premiumisation than volume, as mature coffee markets plateau while developing regions build scale. The report reviews leading players, rising local brands, slowing but targeted innovation, shifting channels and a forecast for steady, price-sensitive growth to 2030, plus evolving roles for functionality and sustainability.
Delivery
This report comes in PPT.
Key findings
Hot drinks remains a large, everyday market
Hot drinks is one of the most universal consumer categories, with near daily penetration in most countries and a strong base of at-home consumption. In 2025, the retail market is worth around USD201 billion, giving the industry real scale and resilience even as discretionary spending is under pressure.
Growth has been price-led rather than volume-led
From 2024 to 2025, most value gains have come from higher unit prices and trading up, while underlying volumes have grown only modestly, especially in Western countries. Consumers may drink roughly the same number of cups, but are paying more for the beans, speciality teas and richer mixes, with pricing set to remain a key driver of value growth today and in the years ahead.
Global leaders remain strong, but national players are catching up
Nestlé and JDE Peet’s still anchor the global company rankings and Nestlé remains by some distance the largest player in hot drinks. At the same time, the combined share of the top five companies has fallen back since 2020, as national champions as well as a broad tail of niche coffee and tea brands capture much of the incremental growth.
Outlook: Steady but unspectacular value growth
Globally, retail hot drinks is projected to grow by about 2% a year in constant value terms between 2025 and 2030. Most volume growth comes from developing markets, while mature regions such as Western Europe and North America rely on premiumisation, formats and occasions rather than more cups to lift value.
At-home café and modern retail channels shape demand
Investment in bean-to-cup machines and better kettles is pulling consumers slightly towards higher-quality coffee and tea at home, reinforcing the shift to “at-home café” experiences. In retail, e-commerce has roughly doubled its share of hot drinks sales since 2019, while discounters is the fastest-growing traditional channel, making the kitchen counter, the online basket and the very value-focused classic retail critical battlegrounds for brands.
Our expert’s view of Hot Drinks in 2026
Hot Drinks snapshot
Key findings
Hot Drinks at a premium with pricing up and volumes under pressure
Top five trends in Hot Drinks
Top five trends uncovered
Drivers of consumer markets and impact on Hot Drinks
Adjacent industries and how they impact Hot Drinks
From price surge to steadier, premium-led growth in hot drinks
Small affluent markets spend the most while emerging markets grow the fastest
State of the industry plateau as emerging regions build scale
Sustainable products rank lower in priority in price-sensitive times
Nestlé remains market leader, while JDE Peet undergoes significant change
Companies in inflation-hit countries grow fastest
Established players under pressure in key markets
Number of launches low despite the need to attract new, young consumers
Sustainability claims evolve, but are now primarily industry- rather than consumer-driven
Discounters record fast growth among grocery retail channels
US remains the leading market while Amazon remains the leading e-commerce player
Forecast: Developing regions drive growth alongside Western Europe
Developing markets such as Brazil and India remain top leading growth markets
Coffee remains the key growth category in most of the world’s regions
Pricing set to remain a key driver impacting forecast growth of hot drinks industry
Trump’s tariffs brought about slowdown to US hot drinks in 2025
Asia Pacific remains the largest source of unmet potential in hot drinks
Growing functionality and emerging markets create opportunities despite higher costs
Opportunities for growth
Our expert’s view of Hot Drinks to 2030
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