Easing inflation, strong labour markets, consumer fatigue with frugality, the strength of the Asia Pacific consumer base, and the continuing ascendance of e-commerce all helped to power growth in the global retail sector in 2025, with sales posting their biggest gains since 2021. However, as retail consolidation accelerates, generative AI disrupts the industry, and economic and political storm clouds loom on the horizon, retailers must adapt in order to survive in a rapidly evolving landscape.
Delivery
This report comes in PPT.
Key Findings
Global retail sales growth accelerates in 2025
Easing inflation, strong labour markets, and widespread consumer fatigue with frugality helped lift the retail sector in 2025, with sales growth recording a year-on-year increase of 2% in constant terms. This represents the best performance for global retail since 2021.
E-commerce remains the retail industry’s growth engine
In 2025, offline retail sales recorded positive momentum for the first time since 2021, as bricks-and-mortar channels that offer low prices – such as discounters and warehouse clubs – posted robust gains. However, the star performer in the retail industry continued to be the e-commerce channel, with online sales now accounting for nearly one out of every four dollars spent globally.
Amazon takes the crown
US-based Walmart has long been the world’s leading retailer by value sales. However, in 2025, Amazon – the US-based online marketplace giant – passed Walmart to take its place as the world’s new retail champion. Amazon’s triumph is an unmistakable sign of the increasing centrality of the e-commerce channel to the fortunes of the global retail industry.
South Korea makes digital history
In another sign of the triumph of digital commerce, in 2025, South Korea became the first country in the history of the world in which e-commerce transactions accounted for the majority of retail sales by value. In this way, South Korea is providing the rest of the world with a preview of the future of retail , as the industry is increasingly guided by digital-first consumers.
Asia Pacific consumers and online sales will power global retail sales growth
With macroeconomic and political risks casting a long shadow over the global consumer base, the outlook for the retail industry remains subdued. Even so, propelled largely by rapid e-commerce growth and rising prosperity of residents of the Asia Pacific region, total retail sales are expected to edge upward every year from 2026 through to 2030.
Our expert’s view of retail in 2025
Retail snapshot
Key findings
2025 will go down as a watershed year for retail e-commerce
Top five trends in retail
Top five trends uncovered
Drivers of consumer markets and impact on retail
A slowdown in foodservice sales boosts retail, but travel and snacks dynamics pose risks
Global retail sales growth accelerates in 2025
E-commerce remains the motor of the global retail sector in 2025
Offline retail catches its breath in 2025
The Asia Pacific region is guiding the future of retail
Global events are forcing consumers to again prioritise saving money
Amazon passes Walmart to become the world’s leading retailer by sales
Online marketplaces account for the majority of global retail sales growth
The biggest retailers are getting bigger
Indonesia is expected to join South Korea in the e-commerce elite
China appears set to pass the US to become the world’s leading retail market in 2031
As e-commerce surges, the outlook for offline channels remains subdued
Asia Pacific will be in the driver’s seat of global retail for years to come
Political uncertainty and surging trade protectionism pose challenges to retail growth
Opportunities for growth
Our expert’s view of retail by 2030
Retail sales by channel in 2025
Channels: Helping you understand where and how consumers shop
Retail
Retail is the sale of new and used goods to consumers from a business for personal or household consumption from retail outlets, kiosks, market stalls, vending, direct selling and e-commerce. Retail is the aggregation of Retail Offline and Retail E-Commerce. Excludes specialist retailers of motor vehicles, motorcycles, vehicle parts. Also excludes fuel sales, foodservice sales, rental transactions, wholesale sales (e.g. Cash and Carry), and sales through cannabis dispensaries in markets where cannabis is sold legally. Sales value excluding or including VAT/Sales Tax. Retail also excludes the informal retail sector. Informal retailing is retail trade which is not declared to the tax authorities. Informal retailing encompasses (a) sales generated by unregistered and unlicensed retailers, i.e. retailers operating illegally, and (b) any proportion of sales generated by a registered and licensed retailer that is not declared to the tax authorities. Unregistered and unlicensed retailers operate predominantly (although not exclusively) as street hawkers or operate open market stalls, as these channels are harder for the authorities to monitor than permanent outlets. Activities in the illegal market, which is usually understood to refer to trade in illegal, counterfeit or stolen merchandise, are included within our definition of informal retailing. Activities in the “grey market”, which is usually understood to refer to trade in legal merchandise that is sold through unauthorized channels – for example cigarettes bought legally in another country, legally imported, but sold at lower prices than in authorized channels – will be included as informal retailing if no tax is paid on sale by the retailer. However if the retailer pays tax – for example on cigarettes bought legally in another country but sold at a lower price than standard – the sale is included within formal retail.
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