Fresh food is predicted to exceed 2.3 billion tonnes in 2025 in total volume sales, strengthening growth compared to 2024 despite market uncertainties. Fruits and vegetables remain the largest and two of the leading growth categories as clean label trends develop further into 2025, aligning with the wider values of wellness and sustainability. These are key engines of growth especially in Asia Pacific, which contributes to 67% of global volume sales, driving global momentum up to 2030.
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Key Findings
Total volume sales predicted to gain momentum
Fresh food is predicted to exceed 2.3 billion tonnes in 2025 in total volume sales, with growth from 2024 (2.8%) higher than 2023-2024 (2.6%). This is despite market uncertainties previously anticipated to depress consumer spend. Instead, consumers traded up to value options within fresh food, while consumers shifted to fresh alternatives from packaged food.
Fresh food is led by fruits and vegetables
Fruits and vegetables remain the largest categories in fresh food between 2020 and 2025, showing the biggest sales gains of 104 million tonnes and 88 million tonnes, respectively. Both categories are predicted to grow more significantly in 2025, as clean label demand gains momentum, and are set to emerge as among the top five growth categories for the year.
Asia Pacific is the largest and fastest growing region
Asia Pacific’s share of global fresh food volume sales remains the largest at 67% in 2025. Despite its large size, it is also the fastest growing in 2025, at 3.3% and forecast to remain so, with a 3.1% CAGR over 2025-2030, making it a key region for export opportunities. India is an important growth driver for the region, whose volume sales accelerated in 2025 to reach 497 million tonnes.
Consumers pursue natural sources of healthy food, shaping fresh food trends
The top five trends are primarily driven by consumers’ continued pursuit of natural sources of healthy food. Clean label trends develop further in 2025, aligning with the wider values of wellness and sustainability. These create growth in new occasions, markets and consumer segments, and give fresh food brands opportunity to premiumise.
Fresh food players are adapting to volatilities but considerable work remains
Market uncertainties still exist due to changes to trade regulations, climate volatilities and price sensitivity of consumers. However, players have adapted in 2025, proving that strong partnerships are essential, together with smart strategies to maximise efficiencies. The fresh food industry is predicted to maintain its growth momentum, with a total volume CAGR of 2.6% over 2025-2030.
Our expert’s view of fresh food in 2025
Fresh food snapshot
Key findings
Fresh food sales set to accelerate
Top five trends in fresh food
Top five trends uncovered
Drivers of consumer markets and impact on fresh food
Cooking and eating trends in the wider food universe impact fresh food
Fresh food expands as consumers increasingly favour minimally processed food
Wellness shifts translate to varied consumer preferences, from nuts to starchy roots
Fruits and vegetables experienced a steep increase in market size up to 2025
Asia Pacific continues to be the growth engine of fresh food
Fresh food must compete with strong presence of staple foods with clean label claims
Growth opportunities at the intersection of wellness and sustainability
Retail e-commerce continues to push fresh food, though physical grocery is still king
Growth trajectory of nuts remains strong up to 2030
Asia Pacific continues to drive global volume sales, trailed by large emerging markets
The US forewarns developed markets of a resistant shift from processed food
Fresh meat growth potential in Asia Pacific lags other regions with room to grow
In contrast, fish and seafood is an Asian-centric market
Retail sales of fresh food fuel future growth, driving value sales up as well
Wellness trends create opportunities, but lagging efficiencies may risk growth
Opportunities for growth
Our expert’s view of fresh food to 2030
Fresh Food
Fresh Food refers only to fresh uncooked and unprocessed foods (packaged and unpackaged). Packaged sugar products and natural sweeteners (e.g. brown sugar, table sugar, molasses) are also included. For Fresh Food, we research total sales across distribution channels including retail, foodservice and institutions. For a selected 18 markets, we have a breakdown of total fresh food sales according to the following formats: • Retail • Foodservice sales • Institutional sales Retail Retail sales is defined as sales through all legal establishments primarily engaged in the sale of fresh, packaged and prepared foods for home preparation and consumption. Retail sales excludes sales to hotels, restaurants, cafés, duty free sales and institutional sales (canteens, prisons/jails, hospitals, army, etc). Our retail definition excludes the purchase of food products from foodservice outlets for consumption off-premises, eg grilled chicken/meat/fish bought from counters of cafés/bars. This falls under foodservice sales. For foodservice, we capture all sales to foodservice outlets, regardless of whether the products are eventually consumed on-premise or off-premise. We estimate sales through the following channels: Modern Grocery Retailers • Supermarkets • Hypermarkets • Discounters • Convenience stores • Forecourt retailers Traditional Grocery Retailers • Independent small grocers • Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists • Other grocery retailers (morning/speciality/open/wet/farmers’ markets, stalls and kiosks, etc) Non-grocery retailers • Health and beauty specialist retailers • Other non-grocery retailers Non-store retailers • Homeshopping • Internet retailing • Vending • Direct selling Foodservice Foodservice sales are defined as sales TO consumer foodservice outlets that serve the general public in a non-captive environment. In other words, this means that the foodservice volumes track sales of all fresh food going into restaurant kitchens, regardless of what the restaurant actually does with that food. Foodservice outlets include cafés/bars, FSR (full-service restaurants), fast food, 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias and street stalls/kiosks. Sales to semi-captive foodservice outlets are also included. This describes outlets located in leisure, travel and retail environments. • Retail refers to foodservice units located in retail outlets such as department stores, shopping malls, shopping centres, super/hypermarkets etc. • Leisure refers to foodservice units located in leisure establishments such as museums, health clubs, cinemas, theatres, theme parks and sports stadiums. • Travel refers to foodservice units based in airports, rail stations, coach stations, motorway service stations offering gas facilities etc. Institutional sales Institutional sales is defined as sales to captive foodservice units that serve captive populations such as in hospitals, schools, prisons, military camps, hotels, hostels, nursing homes, homes for elderly people, religious houses, etc.
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