Retail in 2024: The big picture
In September 2024, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate for the first time since March 2020, signalling a near end to the inflationary macroeconomy. While inflation showed signs of abating, grocery prices remained on average about 25% higher than 2019 levels, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s all-food Consumer Price index, published in February 2024.
Exceptionally high grocery prices in 2024 enter the political arena
In urban and suburban areas, US consumers have had choice in grocery retailers for many years. The density of car ownership means that consumers can split their weekly loyalty between grocers depending on where they can find the best value.
China-affiliated competitors reset the landscape for retail e-commerce in the US
Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop continued their aggressive penetration of the US market in 2024, upsetting a retail e-commerce landscape still largely led by Amazon. The trio acquired greater momentum in 2024 by continuing to compete with Amazon on price.
What next for retail?
2025 opened with a shift in political power in the US, which is likely have implications for retail. Several issues are outstanding at the time of writing.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Retail industry in USA with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to the following key categories, where applicable:
- Convenience Stores
- Discounters
- Hypermarkets
- Supermarkets
- Traditional Grocery Retailers
- Apparel and Footwear Specialist Retailers
- Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers
- Health and Beauty Specialist Retailers
- Home and Garden Specialist Retailers
- Department Stores
- Variety Stores
- Warehouse Clubs
- Direct Selling
- Homeshopping
- Vending
If you're in the Retail industry in USA, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Retail in USA report includes:
- Analysis of key retail trends
- Detailed segmentation of offline and online retail sales
- Historic channel sizes (retail value sales, outlet counts, and selling space)
- Company and brand market shares (retail value sales and outlet counts)
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Retail in USA?
- Which are the leading retailers in Retail in USA?
- How are products distributed in Retail in USA?
- How is the rise of e-commerce and the expansion of modern grocery retail impacting traditional retail?
- How significant are discounters and private label in USA?
- To what extent are sales shifting towards digital channels?
- What is the long-term outlook for bricks-and-mortar?
- How is macroeconomic and political uncertainty affecting the retail industry?
- What types of retailers are seeing the fastest growth in digital sales?
- What is the future of retail?
Retail in the US
Retail in 2024: The big picture
Exceptionally high grocery prices in 2024 enter the political arena
China-affiliated competitors reset the landscape for retail e-commerce in the US
What next for retail?
Informal retail
Opening hours for physical retail
Seasonality
Christmas
Back to School
Prime Day/Christmas in July
Mother’s Day
DISCLAIMER
Convenience Retailers in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Inflationary effects challenge convenience retailers in 2024
Consolidation continues across convenience retailers
Building brand awareness with innovative prepared foods continues in 2024
Low value growth forecast for convenience retailers
Retail media networks set to expand in the forecast period
Amazon Go will lead growth in cashierless technology
Supermarkets in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Supermarkets are thinking small to grow the channel
Albertsons moves to terminate its proposed acquisition by Kroger
“Grocery store tourism” trending in 2024
Maturity in supermarkets will lead to more consolidation and price pressure
Supermarkets will benefit from advances in retail media technology
Amazon Fresh and Amazon Grocery may reshape supermarkets
Hypermarkets in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Growth slows for hypermarkets in 2024, due to stronger competition
Hypermarkets continues to be dominated by Walmart
Walmart completes its acquisition of Vizio Media
Offline retail growth for hypermarkets set to be limited by the competition
Grocery will remain critical to the performance of hypermarkets over the forecast period
Private label investment likely to continue
Discounters in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Discounters benefits from inflationary pressures in 2024
Aldi continues to dominate discounters in 2024, followed by Grocery Outlet
Acquisitions by the leaders in discounters continue
Growth set to continue for discounters over the forecast period, but with challenges
Private label will present both opportunities and challenges over the forecast period
Partnerships with technology providers will help discounters bolster their value proposition
Small Local Grocers in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Low margins, high inflation, and grocery giants pose a problem for small local grocers
Dwindling outlet count exacerbates concerns about food deserts
State and local communities find creative solutions to retain small local grocers
Challenging outlook ahead for small local grocers
Growth of small-format stores from grocery chains may impact small local grocers
Convenience trend poses difficulties for specialist stores
General Merchandise Stores in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Bleak future for department stores sparks limited innovation
Variety stores misses the ball in 2024, seeing only modest growth
Department stores toy with boutique formats as iconic brands struggle
Bleak outlook for department stores
Dollar stores will have to raise their prices again amidst stiff online competition
Outlet cannibalism threatens variety stores, while soaring rents pressure department stores
Apparel and Footwear Specialists in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Discount models drive growth for apparel and footwear specialists
Dismal year for bricks-and-mortar fast fashion as Shein continues its rise
Real estate struggles, and the rising threat of theft
American Eagle fights back against dupe culture
US tariffs on Chinese imports encourage shifts in global supply chain
Further consolidation as Catalyst Brands is formed from struggling retailers
Appliances and Electronics Specialists in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Inflation, housing slump, and online shift weigh on sales
Conn’s says goodbye, and other retailers fear the same fate
Refurbished tech brand Back Market pushes to redefine consumer sentiment
Continued struggle for appliances and electronics specialists
Best Buy to launch a third-party marketplace to contend with Amazon
Concerns about tariffs will reimagine the supply chain for appliances and electronics specialists
Home Products Specialists in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Declining sales amidst housing slump and replacement cycle
Declining sales, retail bankruptcies, and the growth of budget brands for homewares and home furnishing stores
Consolidation, restructuring, and shifts for home improvement and gardening stores
The struggles of home products specialists may not be over
Consumer behaviour pushes a shift towards small independent pet shops and superstores
New presidential administration will have a major impact on home furnishings
Health and Beauty Specialists in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Sephora’s rise, Ulta’s stagnation, and the power of the lipstick effect
Pharmacies endures a bleak year in 2024, with no respite in sight
Pharmacies continues to see disruption
Shop-in-shop expansion and online disruption
The uncertain future of pharmacies in the US
Growing importance of beauty loyalty programmes
Vending in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Growth in vending holds steady in 2024
Innovation in airport retail apps and social media show promise for vending
Smart vending technology can reduce shrinkage
Vending will benefit from changes in how consumers shop
Ulta and SOS team up to dispense beauty products using smart technology
Food offers growth opportunities in vending
Direct Selling in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Another year of declining sales for direct selling in 2024
Bankruptcy and business closures mark direct selling in 2024
Neora experiences a landmark win against the US Federal Trade Commission
Direct selling set to maintain its declining trend over the forecast period
Weight loss drugs will disrupt the direct selling channel
New forms of social commerce present both opportunities and competition
Retail E-Commerce in the US
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Growth for retail e-commerce stays solid in 2024
Amazon faces strong competition from China-affiliated rivals
Third-party marketplaces pick up momentum in 2024
Social commerce and third-party marketplaces key to growth for retail e-commerce
Social media will influence search and discovery innovation
“De minimis” threshold likely to be lowered or cancelled under Trump administration
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Retail
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- Convenience Stores
- Forecourt Retailers
- Supermarkets
- Hypermarkets
- Discounters
- Warehouse Clubs
- Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists
- Small Local Grocers
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- Department Stores
- Variety Stores
- Apparel and Footwear Specialists
- Appliances and Electronics Specialists
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- Home Improvement and Gardening Stores
- Homewares and Home Furnishing Stores
- Pet Shops and Superstores
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- Beauty Specialists
- Pharmacies
- Optical Goods Stores
- Health and Personal Care Stores
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- Bags and Luggage Specialists
- Jewellery and Watch Specialists
- Sports Goods Stores
- Traditional Toys and Games Stores
- Other Non-Grocery Retailers
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- Fashion Vending
- Health and Beauty Vending
- Appliances and Electronics Vending
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- Alcoholic Drinks Vending
- Hot Drinks Vending
- Soft Drinks Vending
- Tobacco Products Vending
- Foods Vending
- Home Products Vending
- Other Products Vending
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- Apparel and Footwear Direct Selling
- Personal Accessories Direct Selling
- Eyewear Direct Selling
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- Beauty and Personal Care Direct Selling
- Consumer Health Direct Selling
- Tissue and Hygiene Direct Selling
- Appliances and Electronics Direct Selling
- Drinks and Tobacco Direct Selling
- Foods Direct Selling
- Home Products Direct Selling
- Other Products Direct Selling
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- Apparel and Footwear E-Commerce
- Personal Accessories E-Commerce
- Eyewear E-Commerce
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- Beauty and Personal Care E-Commerce
- Consumer Health E-Commerce
- Tissue and Hygiene E-Commerce
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- Consumer Appliances E-Commerce
- Consumer Electronics E-Commerce
- Toys and Games E-Commerce
- Drinks and Tobacco E-Commerce
- Foods E-Commerce
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- Home Care E-Commerce
- Home and Garden E-Commerce
- Pet Care E-Commerce
- Other Products E-Commerce
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- First-Party (1P) Marketplace E-Commerce
- Third-Party (3P) Marketplace E-Commerce
- Grocery E-Commerce
- General Merchandiser E-Commerce
- Apparel and Footwear Specialist E-Commerce
- Appliances and Electronics Specialist E-Commerce
- Home Products Specialist E-Commerce
- Health and Beauty Specialist E-Commerce
- Leisure and Personal Goods Specialist E-Commerce
- Other E-Commerce Retailers
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Retail
Retail is the sale of new and used goods to consumers from a business for personal or household consumption from retail outlets, kiosks, market stalls, vending, direct selling and e-commerce. Retail is the aggregation of Retail Offline and Retail E-Commerce. Excludes specialist retailers of motor vehicles, motorcycles, vehicle parts. Also excludes fuel sales, foodservice sales, rental transactions, and wholesale sales (e.g. Cash and Carry). Sales value excluding or including VAT/Sales Tax. Retail also excludes the informal retail sector. Informal retailing is retail trade which is not declared to the tax authorities. Informal retailing encompasses (a) sales generated by unregistered and unlicensed retailers, i.e. retailers operating illegally, and (b) any proportion of sales generated by a registered and licensed retailer that is not declared to the tax authorities. Unregistered and unlicensed retailers operate predominantly (although not exclusively) as street hawkers or operate open market stalls, as these channels are harder for the authorities to monitor than permanent outlets. Activities in the illegal market, which is usually understood to refer to trade in illegal, counterfeit or stolen merchandise, are included within our definition of informal retailing. Activities in the “grey market”, which is usually understood to refer to trade in legal merchandise that is sold through unauthorized channels – for example cigarettes bought legally in another country, legally imported, but sold at lower prices than in authorized channels – will be included as informal retailing if no tax is paid on sale by the retailer. However if the retailer pays tax – for example on cigarettes bought legally in another country but sold at a lower price than standard – the sale is included within formal retail.
See all of our definitionsWhy buy this report?
- Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
- Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
- Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions
This report originates from Passport, our Retail research and analysis database.
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