Rising prices and a shrinking population limit growth opportunities in 2025
Retail sales of fresh food stagnate in 2025 as prices rise putting further pressure on household income. Furthermore, the increasing demand for convenient meal solutions saw more consumers shift to packaged products. Added to this, Japan’s population continued to decline, further limiting the category’s growth potential. Foodservice sales saw a slightly stronger performance, backed by an increase in tourism.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Fresh Food industry in Japan with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to the following key categories, where applicable:
- Eggs
- Fish and Seafood
- Fruits
- Meat
- Nuts
- Pulses
- Starchy Roots
- Sugar and Sweeteners
- Vegetables
If you're in the Fresh Food industry in Japan, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Fresh Food in Japan report includes:
- Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
- Detailed segmentation of international and local products
- Historic volume and value sizes
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Fresh Food in Japan?
- What is the impact of commodity price fluctuations on local production and consumption?
- What are the key campaigns or legislation driving Fresh Food sales?
- How are consumer attitudes towards fresh food evolving?
- How significant is health and wellness in shaping consumer demand?
- Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
Fresh Food in Japan
Rising prices and a shrinking population limit growth opportunities in 2025
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Fresh food sees mixed results in 2025 as foodservice outperforms retail growth
Smaller households and the search for convenience informs market demand
Economic pressures forcing players to rethink their strategies
The search for convenient meal solutions and an ageing population set to restrict growth
“Imperfect” produce could deliver growth opportunities
E-commerce still full of potential but store-based retailers will remain dominant
Supermarkets continue to dominate but other channels make inroads
Retail e-commerce still full of potential despite reduced growth opportunities
COUNTRY REPORTS DISCLAIMER
Eggs in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Production challenges put downward pressure on sales of eggs in 2025
Sales of eggs decline amid rising costs and extreme weather
Supermarkets lead retail sales but health and beauty specialists gain momentum
Price pressures, demographic shifts, and changing habits are obstacles to growth
Demand for value-added eggs rises as price gap with standard eggs narrows
Fish and Seafood in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Rising prices and desire for convenience negatively impacts retail demand
Changing lifestyle habits and rising prices put pressure on retail sales in 2025
Frozen products seeing growing demand at the expense of fresh options
Flat growth projected for fish and seafood
Rising health and sustainability concerns should offer some sales opportunities
Fruits in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Demographic and economic factors weigh on demand
Total volume sales remain flat in 2025 with acai bowls a standout trend in foodservice
Quality and provenance drive loyalty in Japan’s fruit market
Total volume sales unlikely to see significant movement
Opportunities exist for imported and non-standard fruits
Meat in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Rising costs and a declining population put pressure on meat sales in 2025
Ongoing recovery in the foodservice channel not enough to tip the scales
Retail sales decline due to a shrinking population and rising prices
Meat set to retain its appeal despite economic and demographic pressures
Rising demand for convenient packaging
Nuts in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Nuts sales stagnate as
Foodservice growth compensates for continued retail volume decline in sales of nuts
Acai bowl trend gains momentum among younger consumers
Foodservice recovery likely to be offset by challenges in the retail market
Increasing health consciousness presents opportunities for nuts in Japan
Pulses in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Foodservice remains key to the growth of pulses in Japan
Foodservice sales remain key to pulses with sales boosted by increase in tourism
Foodservice operators reimagining pulses for a modern audience
Foodservice recovery will be key to growth as retail demand continues to weaken
Growing dependence on imports due to an ageing workforce
Starchy Roots in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Polarised performances seen from starchy roots in foodservice and retail channels
Increase in foodservice demand helps offset decline in retail volume sales in 2025
Smaller packaging formats align with changing household demographics
Sweet potatoes set to bring some optimism to the market
Imperfect starchy roots could find appeal among price-sensitive consumers
Sugar and Sweeteners in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Mixed fortunes for sugar and sweeteners in 2025
Financial pressures and rising health concerns limit growth opportunities in 2025
White sugar retains its popularity but players starting to explore other alternatives
Sales set to stagnate despite the slow recovery in foodservice demand
Growing health awareness driving consumers toward perceived healthier choices
Vegetables in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Contrasting fortunes for vegetables in the foodservice and retail channels
Polarised performances seen in the retail and foodservice channels
Smaller portions and convenience gain traction as household dynamics change
Sales of vegetables set to remain stable due to recovery in foodservice demand
Growing potential for imported and non-standard vegetables
COUNTRY REPORTS DISCLAIMER
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Fresh Food
- Eggs
-
- Crustaceans
- Fish
- Molluscs and Cephalopods
-
- Apples
- Banana
- Cherries
- Cranberries/Blueberries
- Grapefruit/Pomelo
- Grapes
- Kiwi Fruit
- Lemon and Limes
- Oranges, Tangerines and Mandarins
- Peaches/Nectarines
- Pears/Quinces
- Pineapple
- Plums/Sloes
- Strawberries
- Other Fruits
-
- Beef and Veal
- Lamb, Mutton and Goat
- Pork
- Poultry
- Other Meat
-
- Almonds
- Coconuts
- Peanuts (Groundnuts)
- Pistachio
- Walnuts
- Other Nuts
-
- Beans
- Peas
- Other Pulses
-
- Cassava
- Potatoes
- Sweet Potatoes
- Other Roots
- Sugar and Sweeteners
-
- Cauliflowers and broccoli
- Maize
- Onion
- Tomatoes
- Other Vegetables
Fresh Food
Fresh Food refers only to fresh uncooked and unprocessed foods (packaged and unpackaged). Packaged sugar products and natural sweeteners (e.g. brown sugar, table sugar, molasses) are also included. For Fresh Food, we research total sales across distribution channels including retail, foodservice and institutions. For a selected 18 markets, we have a breakdown of total fresh food sales according to the following formats: • Retail • Foodservice sales • Institutional sales Retail Retail sales is defined as sales through all legal establishments primarily engaged in the sale of fresh, packaged and prepared foods for home preparation and consumption. Retail sales excludes sales to hotels, restaurants, cafés, duty free sales and institutional sales (canteens, prisons/jails, hospitals, army, etc). Our retail definition excludes the purchase of food products from foodservice outlets for consumption off-premises, eg grilled chicken/meat/fish bought from counters of cafés/bars. This falls under foodservice sales. For foodservice, we capture all sales to foodservice outlets, regardless of whether the products are eventually consumed on-premise or off-premise. We estimate sales through the following channels: Modern Grocery Retailers • Supermarkets • Hypermarkets • Discounters • Convenience stores • Forecourt retailers Traditional Grocery Retailers • Independent small grocers • Food/Drink/Tobacco Specialists • Other grocery retailers (morning/speciality/open/wet/farmers’ markets, stalls and kiosks, etc) Non-grocery retailers • Health and beauty specialist retailers • Other non-grocery retailers Non-store retailers • Homeshopping • Internet retailing • Vending • Direct selling Foodservice Foodservice sales are defined as sales TO consumer foodservice outlets that serve the general public in a non-captive environment. In other words, this means that the foodservice volumes track sales of all fresh food going into restaurant kitchens, regardless of what the restaurant actually does with that food. Foodservice outlets include cafés/bars, FSR (full-service restaurants), fast food, 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias and street stalls/kiosks. Sales to semi-captive foodservice outlets are also included. This describes outlets located in leisure, travel and retail environments. • Retail refers to foodservice units located in retail outlets such as department stores, shopping malls, shopping centres, super/hypermarkets etc. • Leisure refers to foodservice units located in leisure establishments such as museums, health clubs, cinemas, theatres, theme parks and sports stadiums. • Travel refers to foodservice units based in airports, rail stations, coach stations, motorway service stations offering gas facilities etc. Institutional sales Institutional sales is defined as sales to captive foodservice units that serve captive populations such as in hospitals, schools, prisons, military camps, hotels, hostels, nursing homes, homes for elderly people, religious houses, etc.
See all of our definitionsWhy buy this report?
- Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
- Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
- Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions
This report originates from Passport, our Fresh Food research and analysis database.
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