Tobacco in 2024: The big picture
In 2024, Kazakhstan's tobacco market was shaped by tighter regulations, mounting economic pressures, and evolving consumer preferences. The most significant development was the complete ban on e-vapour products, which pushed the entire category into the illicit market and redirected some consumer demand towards heated tobacco. This shift spurred a resurgence in heated tobacco sales, following a two-year period of decline. Meanwhile, cigarette sales continued their downward trend, driven by rising prices due to increased excise taxes and growing price sensitivity among consumers. Although smoking prevalence remains relatively high, the market is undergoing a gradual transformation as regulatory pressures intensify and consumers increasingly turn to alternative nicotine products.
2024 key trends
The tobacco market in Kazakhstan continued to decline in volume terms in 2024, largely due to the ongoing fall in cigarette sales. Since cigarettes still represent the bulk of overall tobacco consumption, this downward trend significantly affected the market’s overall performance. Growth was constrained by rising prices and the expanding illicit trade. In response, consumers increasingly shifted towards alternatives such as heated tobacco and, despite an official ban, illicitly obtained e-vapour products. Nonetheless, the market grew in current value terms, driven by continued price increases - primarily the result of higher excise taxes. Meanwhile, smoking prevalence is gradually declining, although at a slow pace.
Competitive landscape
JTI Kazakhstan maintained its leading position in the tobacco market in 2024, supported by a strong and diversified portfolio of brands, which span all price segments. Its economy brand LD remained a key player, while Winston, Sobranie, and Camel retained a high profile in the mid to premium segments, where JTI holds a particularly strong position. Although the economy segment was hardest hit by the rise in illicit trade, JTI’s mid-priced and premium offerings remained stable - and in some cases, even experienced growth. Since late 2023, the company has also been actively expanding its presence in heated tobacco with its Ploom brand and Winston sticks, strengthening its footprint in reduced-risk products.
Retail developments
Small local grocers remained the primary distribution channel for tobacco in Kazakhstan in 2024, particularly for cigarettes. While the presence of supermarkets, and other modern retail formats is steadily growing, small local grocers continue to play a central role in tobacco distribution due to their entrenched reach across both urban and rural regions and consumer familiarity.
What next for tobacco?
The tobacco market in Kazakhstan is expected to continue declining in volume terms over the forecast period, primarily due to the sustained decrease in cigarette consumption - the largest category. Although heated tobacco is projected to grow, following the mid-2024 ban on vaping, its expansion is unlikely to fully offset the sharp decline in cigarette sales. Smoking prevalence is gradually falling, influenced by tighter regulations and a slow but steady shift towards healthier lifestyles.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Tobacco industry in Kazakhstan with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to the following key categories, where applicable:
- Cigarettes
- Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco
- Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco
If you're in the Tobacco industry in Kazakhstan, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Tobacco in Kazakhstan report includes:
- Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
- Detailed segmentation of international and local products
- Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Tobacco in Kazakhstan?
- Which are the leading brands in Tobacco in Kazakhstan?
- How are products distributed in Tobacco in Kazakhstan?
- Which category is the most heavily taxed in Kazakhstan?
- How is the operating environment for Tobacco changing?
- What are the current legislative restrictions applicable to the sale of Tobacco products in Kazakhstan?
- How has COVID-19 impacted demand?
- How have national lockdown and enforced home seclusion following COVID-19 impacted sales?
- Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
Tobacco in Kazakhstan
Tobacco in 2024: The big picture
2024 key trends
Competitive landscape
Retail developments
What next for tobacco?
Legislation
Legislative overview
Minimum legal smoking age
Smoking prevalence
Tar levels
Health warnings
Plain packaging
Advertising and sponsorship
Point-of-sale display bans
Smoking in public places
Low ignition propensity (LIP) cigarette regulation
Flavoured tobacco product ban
Reduced harm
Vapour products
PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS
DISCLAIMER
Cigarettes in Kazakhstan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Cigarettes see continued decline in demand, as consumers shift towards nicotine alternatives
JTI holds lead while KT&G sees dynamic performance
Traditional grocers still dominate, but modern trade gains ground
Capsule cigarettes to lead innovation in declining market
Price shifts to drive upgrading and expansion of illicit trade
Flavour innovation will help brands stand out in a declining market
Taxation rates
Average cigarette pack price breakdown
Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco in Kazakhstan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Cigars face ongoing decline while fine cut tobacco gains traction
Dannemann El Noble Cigarro leads cigars and cigarillos while Mac Baren dominates smoking tobacco
Food/drink/tobacco specialists dominate cigar, cigarillo and smoking tobacco sales
Mixed outlook for cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco
Hookah smoking remains widespread despite ban
Limited innovation expected in niche tobacco categories
Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco in Kazakhstan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Heated tobacco rebounds as e-vapour ban reshapes the market
Philip Morris dominates heated tobacco while Shenzhen HQD Technology leads collapsing e-vapour category
Heated tobacco sees retail diversification
Heated tobacco set to drive growth as e-vapour moves underground
Philip Morris poised to maintain leadership in heated tobacco
Innovation to drive consumer loyalty in heated tobacco
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Tobacco
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- Fine Cut Cigarettes
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- Cigarettes (Illicit+Legal)
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- Cigars
- Cigarillos
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- Pipe Tobacco
- Fine Cut Tobacco
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- Chewing Tobacco
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- Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
- Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
- Swedish-Style Snus
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- Closed System Single Use
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- Closed System Rechargeable (including starter kits)
- Closed System Cartridges
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- Open Vaping Systems Charging and Vapourising Devices
- E-liquids
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- Tobacco Heating Devices
- Heated Tobacco
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- Nicotine Pouches
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- Closed System Single Use (Illicit+Legal)
- Closed System Cartridges (Illicit+Legal)
- E-Liquids (Illicit+Legal)
Tobacco
Passport Tobacco covers the seven major tobacco categories: Cigarettes, Cigars & Cigarillos, Smoking tobacco (made up of Pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco), Smokeless Tobacco (snuff and chewing tobacco), E-Vapour Products (closed and open); Heated Tobacco; and Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine. Smoking paraphernalia such as pipes, rolling papers, lighters or matches, etc., are not included, nor are nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, which are part of Euromonitor's Passport Consumer Healthcare database.
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This report originates from Passport, our Tobacco research and analysis database.
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