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Monitor market trends and category performance across cigarettes, heated tobacco and e-vapour products and understand how product innovations and legislative interventions are influencing demand.
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Learn moreTransformation remains the industry priority, driving growth in total nicotine units, despite a decline in cigarette volumes. The evolving and intricate nicotine landscape will continue to drive consumers to multiple product formats, and expand the significance of nicotine beyond combustion. Here are the main trends in the nicotine and tobacco industry.
As the global nicotine and cannabis industries continue their transformation, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year. Here’s what industry leaders need to know from the first half of 2025.
Macroeconomic trends, such as developments in legislation and regulations, are the primary drivers and constraints for the South African cannabis market’s current performance, as well as its medium-to-long-term performance. While these developments establish the framework – or “rules of the game” – their influence is most notable in shifting consumer behaviours and market trends. To this end, three key consumer trends stand out as central in shaping the future of the cannabis industry in South Africa.
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Stay informed about current and future trends shaping the nicotine and cannabis industries. We also monitor, collect and analyse consumer survey data to better understand behaviours, trends and factors influencing purchasing habits in the nicotine and cannabis space.
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We research three distinct categories, with detailed sub-category breakdowns: cigarettes; cigars, cigarillos & smoking tobacco and smokeless tobacco, e-vapour products & heated tobacco. We research 99 countries and produce modelled data where we don’t have local in-country analysts.
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It was a tale of two tobacco markets in 2022, as flat overall global cigarettes volume, balanced growth in only two regions - Asia Pacific and Latin America - against very significant declines, particularly in developed markets.
Backed partly by existing legacy use, there is a broad-based growth narrative for legal cannabis. More geographies are moving from prohibition to controlling and taxing cannabinoid products. Consumers are turning to cannabis use in increasingly diverse parts of their lives - therapeutically, for relaxation, mood management and more, feeding an 18% value CAGR over 2023-2028.
Tobacco industry in the Middle East and Africa is growing in both cigarettes and alternative tobacco products, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and South Africa to offer the largest opportunity. Cigarettes are demonstrating moderate growth depending on smoking tradition in the country and import processes. E-vapour products and heated tobacco are growing fast from smaller base, and their future in the region depends on further regulations and innovative products yet to be offered by manufacturers.
Currently, the medical cannabis market is very limited in Japan, but the illegal cannabis market is growing along with the legal CBD market. In 1948, Japan’s Cannabis Control Act prohibited cannabis use, restricting its cultivation to purposes such as fibre, seeds and research, under directives from the post-war GHQ administration. This Act remained largely unchanged until 2023, when the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW), following expert committee discussions in 2021-2022, initiated
During 2024, the South African legal cannabis market continued to develop, following enactment of the Cannabis for Private Purposes Act, which codified the 2018 landmark judgement into law, by formally legalising personal cultivation and use of cannabis in private spaces. In turn, the change in the legislative environment significantly increased social acceptance, which drove consumption and cultivation rates across the country.
Overall, demand for cannabis remained strong in Switzerland during 2024. Cannabis registered significant value sales growth throughout the year. The main reason for the strong growth was the excellent performance of adult-use cannabis. Adult-use cannabis recorded the fastest growth in value and volume terms in 2024. Adult-use cannabis’ performance has been shaped by the implementation of pilot tests.
Cigarette sales were in decline across Western Europe in 2023, but increased slightly at a regional level due to the strong growth in Turkey, where illicit trade was falling and the smoking population was growing. Sales of next-generation products continue to grow in Western Europe, with even an upcoming ban on disposable vapes in the UK, their biggest regional market, not expected to significantly impact this trend, with Italy remaining the leading market for heated tobacco products regionally.
Volume sales of smokeless tobacco still did not officially exist in France in 2024, whilst volume sales of both e-vapour products and heated tobacco products also fell during the year.
In 2024, cigarettes in Kenya continued to shrink due to a combination of stricter regulations, shifting social norms, and reduced production capacity. The enforcement of the Tobacco Control Act of 2007 intensified, with some counties adopting measures that restrict public and shelf displays, leading to a “purchase-on-request” model. This limited visibility has contributed to a decline in consumer uptake, particularly among new or occasional smokers. Meanwhile, enforcement around designated smoki
