Over the forecast period, retail volume sales of cigarettes are expected to decline steadily, largely due to shifting consumer preferences and increasing health awareness. The growing appeal of non-combustible alternatives such as nicotine pouches and electronic cigarettes has played a key role in diverting consumers from traditional tobacco.
Illicit cigarettes are projected to be the most dynamic part of the cigarette landscape in the coming years, with growing demand attributed to the affordability and accessibility of these products, especially in informal retail channels. Despite the government’s enforcement efforts and public health campaigns, the illicit market continues to thrive, partially due to the price differentials between taxed and untaxed products.
Looking ahead, innovation will be a critical lever for tobacco manufacturers operating in Kenya. As public health awareness grows and legislation becomes increasingly stringent, companies are pivoting toward product innovation that aligns with evolving consumer preferences.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Cigarettes industry in Kenya with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
If you're in the Cigarettes industry in Kenya, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See all of our definitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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