Retail volume sales of cigarettes are projected to continue to fall strong over the forecast period, albeit at slower rates than in the second half of the review period. However, premium smokers are expected to continue to trade down amidst pricing pressure.
The long-anticipated menthol ban remains in regulatory limbo, as it was delayed once again in January 2025, following industry pushback and political hesitations. While the Biden administration advocated for stricter tobacco control, the ban’s uncertain status has left cigarette manufacturers in a state of strategic adaptation.
The premium segment is increasingly vulnerable, squeezed between a rising trading down trend and the growing presence of heated tobacco products. Manufacturers have historically relied on price hikes to maintain profitability amid volume declines, but in 2024 there were signs of growing consumer resistance.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Cigarettes industry in USA with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See all of our definitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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