PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Trading down or shifting to alternatives to continue but divergences remain
Retail volume sales of cigarettes are projected to continue to fall strong over the forecast period, albeit at slower rates than in the second half of the review period. However, premium smokers are expected to continue to trade down amidst pricing pressure.
Uncertainty remains over the menthol ban, with a surge in illicit trade anticipated
The long-anticipated menthol ban remains in regulatory limbo, as it was delayed once again in January 2025, following industry pushback and political hesitations. While the Biden administration advocated for stricter tobacco control, the ban’s uncertain status has left cigarette manufacturers in a state of strategic adaptation.
Premium cigarettes face a squeeze with discount brands and heated tobacco set to gain ground
The premium segment is increasingly vulnerable, squeezed between a rising trading down trend and the growing presence of heated tobacco products. Manufacturers have historically relied on price hikes to maintain profitability amid volume declines, but in 2024 there were signs of growing consumer resistance.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Cigarettes industry in USA with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
If you're in the Cigarettes industry in USA, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Cigarettes in USA report includes:
- Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
- Detailed segmentation of international and local products
- Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Cigarettes in USA?
- Which are the leading brands in Cigarettes in USA?
- How are products distributed in Cigarettes in USA?
- Which category is the most heavily taxed in USA?
- How is the operating environment for Cigarettes changing?
- What are the current legislative restrictions applicable to the sale of Cigarettes products in USA?
- How has COVID-19 impacted demand?
- How have national lockdown and enforced home seclusion following COVID-19 impacted sales?
- Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
Cigarettes in the US - Category analysis
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Delay to the ban on menthol cigarettes impacts 2024 developments
Consumers turn to discount brands in a tough economic climate
Forecourt retailers benefit from strategic locations and convenience
Trading down or shifting to alternatives to continue but divergences remain
Uncertainty remains over the menthol ban, with a surge in illicit trade anticipated
Premium cigarettes face a squeeze with discount brands and heated tobacco set to gain ground
Taxation rates
Average cigarette pack price breakdown
Tobacco in the US - Industry Overview
Tobacco in 2024: The big picture
2024 key trends
Competitive landscape
Retail developments
What next for tobacco?
Legislation
Minimum legal smoking age
Smoking prevalence
Tar levels
Health warnings
Plain packaging
Advertising and sponsorship
Point-of-sale display bans
Smoking in public places
Low ignition propensity (LIP) cigarette regulation
Flavoured tobacco product ban
Reduced harm
Vapour products
PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS
DISCLAIMER
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Cigarettes
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- Fine Cut Cigarettes
Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See all of our definitionsWhy buy this report?
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This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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