PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Cigarette smoking prevalence expected to decline but likely to remain at a high level
Sales of cigarettes are expected to decline in retail volume terms over the forecast period. Following the temporary boost recorded in 2024, volume sales are predicted to follow the longer-term decline, with smoking prevalence expected to fall.
EU initiatives may accelerate changes in Germany’s tobacco market
Legislation intended at cutting tobacco consumption is expected to remain less restrictive in Germany than in other European markets, with the new coalition government which came to power in spring 2025 not expected to make significant policy changes in this regard. Other European countries have taken a bolder approach, including the UK, which plans to create a smoke-free generation by raising the minimum age for purchasing cigarettes each year.
Innovation expected to focus on slim cigarettes and larger pack sizes
New product innovation is expected to remain minimal, due to the lack of legal marketing options. However, cigarettes producers may seek growth opportunities through market niches, such as slim cigarettes, which are expected to gain popularity due to the perception among some smokers that they are less harmful.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Cigarettes industry in Germany with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
If you're in the Cigarettes industry in Germany, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Cigarettes in Germany report includes:
- Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
- Detailed segmentation of international and local products
- Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Cigarettes in Germany?
- Which are the leading brands in Cigarettes in Germany?
- How are products distributed in Cigarettes in Germany?
- Which category is the most heavily taxed in Germany?
- How is the operating environment for Cigarettes changing?
- What are the current legislative restrictions applicable to the sale of Cigarettes products in Germany?
- How has COVID-19 impacted demand?
- How have national lockdown and enforced home seclusion following COVID-19 impacted sales?
- Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
Cigarettes in Germany - Category analysis
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Sales increase as consumers stock up ahead of forthcoming tax increase
Philip Morris share sees a slight erosion due to intense price competition
Forecourt retailers remain the leading channel but discounter share rises
Cigarette smoking prevalence expected to decline but likely to remain at a high level
EU initiatives may accelerate changes in Germany’s tobacco market
Innovation expected to focus on slim cigarettes and larger pack sizes
Taxation rates
Average cigarette pack price breakdown
Tobacco in Germany - Industry Overview
Tobacco in 2024: The big picture
2024 key trends
Competitive landscape
Retail developments
What next for tobacco?
Legislation
Legislative overview
Minimum legal smoking age
Smoking prevalence
Tar levels
Health warnings
Plain packaging
Advertising and sponsorship
Point-of-sale display bans
Smoking in public places
Low ignition propensity (LIP) cigarette regulation
Flavoured tobacco product ban
Reduced harm
Vapour products
PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS
DISCLAIMER
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Cigarettes
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- Fine Cut Cigarettes
Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See all of our definitionsWhy buy this report?
- Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
- Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
- Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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