The US-EU trade deal announced on 27 July 2025 brings some much needed clarity to global markets amid ongoing geopolitical and trade volatility. It carries significant implications for the US, the EU and the broader global economy, accelerating shifts in trade flows, industrial strategies and geopolitical alignments.
The Trump administration’s continued focus on “America First” is reshaping global trade dynamics. With risks and uncertainty surrounding tariffs, cross-border logistics, and trade restrictions, reassessing reliance on the US market and diversifying into new consumer markets has become the top strategic imperative for businesses. This article provides a data-led guide to where businesses should look next and why, using our Alternative Market Opportunity Index.
On 2 July, a trade deal between the US and Vietnam was announced. Under the agreement, US goods will enter Vietnam duty-free, while the US will charge a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam, instead of the 46% tariff announced in April. In addition, a new “transshipment” agreement was announced, which will charge a 40% tariff rate on goods from other countries that pass through Vietnam on the way to the US market. The new trade deal marks a significant milestone for Vietnam and will have an impact on production networks across Asia.
Our economic growth forecasts for the US have been revised downwards for 2025 at the same time as inflation forecasts have risen. In this video, Lan Ha, Head of Insights for Economies and Consumers, examines the impact of continuing tariffs and escalations of the trade war, which could push the US economy into recession with inflation rising to 6-7%. This stagflation scenario complicates business strategies, threatening profit margins and requiring new growth avenues. However, scenario planning can help businesses navigate this uncertain environment and identify new growth opportunities.
What’s the potential impact of Trump’s policies across industries and economies? Stream this webinar to examine four major concerns right now: tariffs, migration, deregulation and consumer demand.
The global economy has witnessed growing headwinds since early 2025, as trade policy shocks from the US weigh on the global supply chain and business and consumer confidence.