The US-EU trade deal announced on 27 July 2025 brings some much needed clarity to global markets amid ongoing geopolitical and trade volatility. It carries significant implications for the US, the EU and the broader global economy, accelerating shifts in trade flows, industrial strategies and geopolitical alignments.
The Trump administration’s continued focus on “America First” is reshaping global trade dynamics. With risks and uncertainty surrounding tariffs, cross-border logistics, and trade restrictions, reassessing reliance on the US market and diversifying into new consumer markets has become the top strategic imperative for businesses. This article provides a data-led guide to where businesses should look next and why, using our Alternative Market Opportunity Index.
On 2 July, a trade deal between the US and Vietnam was announced. Under the agreement, US goods will enter Vietnam duty-free, while the US will charge a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam, instead of the 46% tariff announced in April. In addition, a new “transshipment” agreement was announced, which will charge a 40% tariff rate on goods from other countries that pass through Vietnam on the way to the US market. The new trade deal marks a significant milestone for Vietnam and will have an impact on production networks across Asia.
As President Trump intensifies his trade war after a three month pause on the “reciprocal” tariffs announced in early April, the international trade environment has never been more volatile. Recent tariff threats targeting Canada, the EU, Mexico and others underscore how quickly trade dynamics can shift, with potentially far-reaching consequences. The challenge for global businesses is not only to assess immediate impacts, but also to remain strategically agile as events continue to unfold.
Chinese companies are rapidly gaining ground in Southeast Asia, particularly in categories where they hold clear competitive advantages, such as electric vehicles, consumer electronics and home appliances. More recently, Chinese consumer goods brands have expanded their footprint, reflecting a broader push into lifestyle and daily-use categories; however, their success is not uniform.
Our economic growth forecasts for the US have been revised downwards for 2025 at the same time as inflation forecasts have risen. In this video, Lan Ha, Head of Insights for Economies and Consumers, examines the impact of continuing tariffs and escalations of the trade war, which could push the US economy into recession with inflation rising to 6-7%. This stagflation scenario complicates business strategies, threatening profit margins and requiring new growth avenues. However, scenario planning can help businesses navigate this uncertain environment and identify new growth opportunities.
The new US tariffs will have a far-reaching impact on the globalised fashion industry. The US market faces higher prices, supply shortages, and shifts in consumer behaviour; while Chinese companies will need new export markets for their surpluses, redesigning the global trade landscape. Moreover, brands in the US and beyond will explore sourcing diversification strategies to mitigate future risks. This article looks at trade dependencies to understand the multiple implications of the tariffs on the fashion industry, from pricing to sourcing strategies and discusses how fashion players can build resilience in times of uncertainty.
The global economy has witnessed growing headwinds since early 2025, as trade policy shocks from the US weigh on the global supply chain and business and consumer confidence.
President Trump’s 2025 package of higher tariffs, tax cuts and tighter immigration controls is reshaping US consumer markets. Uncertainty and rising inflation expectations are dampening demand, and spending growth across all categories is expected to moderate, with no clear winners. While many incentives may sunset with the 2029 term limit, elevated tariffs and weaker investment incentives are likely to suppress confidence and spending for at least another two years post-administration.
Your mid-year outlook for the global economy in 2025. Find the latest projections for GDP growth and inflation to support your strategy and scenario planning.
A macro model helps you better understand economic risks in target markets—if you know how to use this analytical tool for effective scenario planning. Let’s review the impact of two scenarios that are top of mind for business leaders.
President Trump’s tariffs are a strategy, what the President refers to as a “medicine”, to break the US addiction to low-cost manufacturing which is part of generating the trade deficit with China. Using cookware as an example for data specifics, we can show how tariff policies imply double-digit inflationary pressure is landing in 2025 and show why investment in India is heating up.
Watch this panel to unpack the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the global trade landscape. You’ll gain insights to help you operate in today’s volatile economy as policy shifts continue at speed.
The imposition of a host of new tariffs by the US is already beginning to impact global trade flows. This development is expected to have a significant impact on the retail industry, especially in terms of the performance of the retail e-commerce channel. This article explores how the new tariff regime could change the face of the retail and e-commerce landscape over the next few years.
Since 2019, Shein has grown explosively to rank as the world’s fourth largest apparel brand by 2024, generating USD21 billion in sales (fixed 2024 exchange rates), with 35% from the US. Amid evolving US trade policies and intensifying competition from both Chinese rivals and Western giants, Shein is pivoting strategically: strengthening its footprint beyond the US, diversifying its supply chain, and refining its pricing model to adapt to the elimination of de minimis trade exemptions.
Trump’s tariffs are reshaping international trade, disrupting supply chains and creating challenges for businesses. How could this impact your company? Watch now.
The first 100 days of a US Presidency typically set the tone for the future administration. President Trump’s second term has started with chaos and uncertainty, marked by a global trade war, financial market turmoil, an increased risk of recession, spending and federal government cuts as well as threats of mass deportation. We present a summary of Euromonitor’s analysis published since Trump’s re-election, representing the uncertainty and rapid policy shifts at the time. Despite the turbulence, agile businesses can still find opportunities as global supply chains and consumer behaviour evolve.
US consumer foodservice relies on undocumented workers and imported food. This makes it uniquely vulnerable to Trump’s promise to expel record numbers of immigrants and impose tariffs on US allies.