Tracking Loyalty Promotion Rates Amid Rising Prices and Tariff Concerns

The “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on 2 April in the US sent ripple effects through global supply chains, heightening cost pressures for both businesses and consumers. As companies navigate this new period of economic uncertainty, loyalty programmes are becoming an increasingly important lever, not just for driving engagement and retention, but also for delivering meaningful value to consumers beyond the transaction, signalling value and managing price perception. One key tactic gaining traction is the strategic deployment of loyalty promotional rates and types, particularly in categories like snacks, where price sensitivity is rising and retail competition is intensifying.

Multiple cost pressures drive price increases across select snack categories

The ripple effects of the tariffs announced on 2 April have been felt across global retail landscapes. Tariff announcements, especially those involving major importers like the US, can cause supply chain uncertainty, commodity cost volatility and anticipatory pricing behaviour by manufacturers and retailers worldwide. In this context, tracking standardised price and loyalty promotion data by category has become a critical tool for staying ahead of inflationary pressure. Even over a relatively short time horizon – 10 weeks before and 10 weeks after the announcement – we can already observe significant pricing shifts in certain snack categories in the UK.Snack categories are especially worth monitoring, given their complex supply chains, ingredient dependencies and intense promotional competition. For example, chocolate prices in the UK rose at the fastest pace on record in May, driven by poor harvests and structural issues in major cocoa-producing countries. Reflecting this, chocolate countlines and tablets saw average SKU prices increase by 8% and 3%, respectively, during our 20-week observation window either side of “Liberation Day”. Even categories like potato chips and savoury biscuits, which showed only modest price movement, still suggest that consumers are encountering noticeable price changes in a short period. Tracking how loyalty promotions shift alongside these price changes offers a critical lens into how retailers are responding.

Rising economic uncertainty prompts retailers to adjust loyalty programmes

Loyalty programmes are playing an increasingly important role in helping retailers respond to economic uncertainty.

The average amount spent through loyalty programs by loyalty users in the UK at grocery stores and supermarkets rose by 8% in 2024, reaching GBP4,528 per capita

^{Source: Euromonitor International’s Loyalty Value Contribution Dashboard}

Compared to the average per capita grocery stores and supermarket spend of GBP4,226, this increase reflects strong shopper engagement and suggests that loyalty programmes remain a preferred way for consumers to seek value and for brands to strengthen customer connection during periods of financial pressure.

Tesco and Sainsbury’s, as two of the UK’s largest and most influential grocery retailers, play a leading role in shaping shopper expectations, particularly when it comes to loyalty pricing and promotions. In the face of large-scale geopolitical events, like the US “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, such programmes allow retailers to strategically cushion shopper anxiety, while protecting margins, by focusing loyalty promotional activity on categories where it will have the greatest impact.

In the case of the snack categories examined, aside from countlines at Tesco, and nuts, seeds and trail mixes at Sainsbury’s, all saw loyalty promotional rates either hold steady or increase in the 10 weeks following the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Loyalty promotions remain an important lever for retailers to maintain trust and purchasing frequency during periods of geopolitical disruption, which can trigger heightened consumer anxiety and economic uncertainty. The sample of SKUs across Tesco and Sainsbury’s points to a tactical approach, with retailers adjusting loyalty support based on how shoppers are reacting to price pressure across different snack categories.

Furthermore, the loyalty promotional type offers retailers different strategic tools. While Sainsbury’s typically presents a straightforward “Nectar Price” loyalty promotion, Tesco utilises multiple formats for communicating savings to Clubcard members although “Clubcard Price” is overwhelmingly the most used. These distinctions underscore that loyalty programmes are not just discount mechanisms, but behavioural drivers, ones that influence shoppers’ perception, urgency to purchase and brand trust. As economic volatility continues, loyalty propositions are likely to play a growing role in how consumers navigate decisions in the grocery aisle, whether following tariff announcements or the next geopolitical shock.

Read our report, Top Five Trends in Loyalty for more analysis on customer loyalty in 2025.