Dairy products and alternatives in 2025: The big picture
Retail value sales of dairy products and alternatives are expected to rise in current terms in Japan in 2025, primarily as a result of rising unit prices. The cost of raw materials has remained elevated as a result of factors such as rising global demand. At the same time, the surge in crude oil prices has led to logistics costs and packaging material prices rising, while expenses such as energy costs have also remained high. Furthermore, increasing raw milk production costs due to soaring feed prices has driven up the transaction prices of both the raw milk used for the production of dairy products excluding fresh milk, and those used for fresh milk. In response, major manufacturers such as Meiji Co Ltd, Megmilk Snow Brand Co, Ltd. and Morinaga Milk Industry Co Ltd. have implemented price adjustments for their dairy products in most of categories in 2025.
Key trends in 2025
While most of dairy products and alternatives categories are set to see retail volume sales decline in 2025, plant-based dairy is expected to register a positive performance in both retail volume and current value terms. This is largely owing to a recovery in sales of soy drinks, the dominant category in plant-based dairy. Soy drinks recorded record sales in both retail value and volume terms in 2020 but subsequently saw decline due to factors such as price hikes leading to reduced consumer purchases. However, in 2024, industry-wide efforts to boost demand, including organising events and campaigns, proved successful, leading to a recovery in soy drink production and contributing to market expansion, which continued in 2025. Furthermore, the Japan Soy Milk Association designated October as Soy Milk Month and actively conducted awareness and educational campaigns centred around Soy Milk Day to promote soy drinks to consumers. Meanwhile, plant-based yoghurt has continued to perform well in 2025 thanks to the entry of new players in recent years. March 2024 saw major dairy player, Megmilk Snow Brand Co Ltd, finally enter plant-based dairy with the launch of plant-based yogurt products under the new Plant Label brand. The same year saw Yakult Honsha Co Ltd, launch its first-ever plant-based product, Tonyu No Chikara in October, following the acquisition of a plant-based business from Pokka Sapporo Food & Beverage Ltd.
Competitive Landscape
Meiji Co Ltd is set to extend its lead in dairy products and alternatives in 2025. The company remains at the forefront of the market in Japan, thanks to its robust presence in various dairy categories such as drinking milk products, yoghurt and sour milk products, and milk formula within baby food. Whilst consumers are becoming increasingly budget-minded due to the prevailing economic uncertainty, they continue to show strong loyalty to Meiji brands (notably the Meiji Oishii Gyunyu brand) as they are renowned for their quality. Furthermore, Meiji has been actively investing in sustainability initiatives in recent years, especially since 2021 when it announced its medium-term management plan for fiscal 2021 to 2023, introducing a unique management indicator called Meiji ROESG. This target combines return on equity (ROE) with ESG ratings. For instance, in 2025, Meiji has been actively working on solving the issue of surplus SNF raw materials and skimmed milk powder, in order to support sustainable dairy farming and reduce food waste. Initiatives have involved the development of new products that effectively utilise SNF raw materials and skimmed milk powder, such as snacks and alcoholic drinks in 2025.
Channel developments
Supermarkets has long provided the key locations for Japanese consumers to do their grocery shopping. Consumers primarily appreciate the convenience of being able to meet all of their regular food and drink, tissue and hygiene, and home care requirements in a single store. Indeed, this has become increasingly important to consumers as lifestyles have become ever busier due in part to an increase in the number of dual-income households. Supermarkets saw a significant rise in its share of dairy products and alternatives value sales between 2019 and 2022, with its share dropping slightly over the next two years. However, 2025 is expected to see another upturn in its share.
What next for dairy products and alternatives?
Dairy products and alternatives is expected to see retail value sales increase in current terms over the forecast period. However, growth will largely be driven by anticipated price increases, and sales are set to fall at constant 2025 prices and in volume terms between 2025 and 2030. As well as the impact of rising prices on demand, volume sales will be pushed down by the contraction of the potential consumer base due to the shrinking of the Japanese population. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has stated that the number of births (including foreigners, based on actual demand) declined for a ninth consecutive year in 2024, falling by 5% from the previous year to 720,988. Over the past decade, the number of births has decreased by approximately 300,000. The decline in the birth rate is partly due to economic uncertainty and the increasing burden of household and childcare costs, which are leading more people to choose not to marry or to have children even if they do marry.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Dairy Products and Alternatives industry in Japan with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to a comprehensive range of core packaged food categories.
If you're in the Dairy Products and Alternatives industry in Japan, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Dairy Products and Alternatives in Japan report includes:
- Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
- Detailed segmentation of international and local products
- Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Dairy Products and Alternatives in Japan?
- Which are the leading brands in Dairy Products and Alternatives in Japan?
- How are products distributed in Dairy Products and Alternatives in Japan?
- How is the rise of e-commerce and/or the expansion of modern grocery retail impacting traditional retail?
- What are the key health and wellness concerns driving, or challenging, sales in Dairy Products and Alternatives?
- How significant are vegan and vegetarian dietary requirements in determining sales growth in Japan?
- How has COVID-19 impacted consumer demand? To what extent have lockdown, home seclusion and stockpiling boosted sales? Will the longer term economic repercussions of the pandemic stimulate or suppress future growth?
- Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
- How significant will values-based claims, such as sustainability and ethical labelling, be in supporting future growth and brand equity?
Dairy Products and Alternatives in Japan
Dairy products and alternatives in 2025: The big picture
Key trends in 2025
Competitive Landscape
Channel developments
What next for dairy products and alternatives?
DISCLAIMER
Baby Food in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Effect of declining birth rate partially offset by increased use of baby food
Asahi Group Foods Ltd leads baby food
Health and beauty specialists is the largest channel, while e-commerce expands
Continuous drop in birth rate set to impact sales
Snacks with functional benefits and organic baby food emerging
Accelerating efforts towards sustainability
Butter and Spreads in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Retail value sales increase due to unit price increase
Megmilk Snow Brand Co Ltd stays out in front
Supermarkets leads sales, while health and beauty specialists expands
Population decline to affect sales
Unhealthy image of margarine will continue to impact sales
Labour shortages provide potential for products that contribute to alleviating staff shortages in the foodservice sector
Cheese in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Slight decrease in value terms despite unit price increase
Megmilk Snow Brand Co Ltd retains lead
Supermarkets benefits from key role in overall grocery shopping
Population decline shrinking potential consumer base
Healthy image of cheese and an ageing population will benefit the category
Growing focus on sustainability provides opportunities for plant-based products
Drinking Milk Products in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Price increase boosts value
Meiji Co Ltd tops the rankings despite share loss
Consumers purchase milk along with groceries
Demographic developments to limit volume sales
Functional product development and an ageing population to boost demand
Environmental awareness to exert growing influence
Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Retail value sales rise due to unit price increase
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd leads
Health and beauty specialists expanding
Challenges include declining population and competition from other health foods
Positive impact of functional products and an ageing population
Increasing emphasis on sustainability
Other Dairy in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Unit price increase and continuous growth of chilled and shelf stable desserts drive growth
Megmilk Snow Brand Co Ltd retains lead despite share loss
Growing share for supermarkets
Growth expected thanks to the popularity of chilled dairy desserts
Health v indulgence
Rising environmental awareness
Plant-Based Dairy in Japan
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Industry-wide efforts to boost demand continue to benefit the category
Kikkoman Soy Foods Co Ltd extends lead
Convenience key to choice of store
Healthy image of plant-based dairy and affordable price of soy drinks to benefit category sales
Products with functional benefits emerging
Compatible with rising eco-awareness
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Dairy Products and Alternatives
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- Dried Baby Food
- Prepared Baby Food
- Other Baby Food
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- Liquid Standard Milk Formula
- Powder Standard Milk Formula
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- Liquid Follow-on Milk Formula
- Powder Follow-on Milk Formula
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- Liquid Growing-Up Milk Formula
- Powder Growing-Up Milk Formula
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- Liquid Special Baby Milk Formula
- Powder Special Baby Milk Formula
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- Butter
- Cooking Fats
- Margarine and Spreads
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- Spreadable Cheese
- Processed Cheese excl Spreadable
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- Packaged Hard Cheese
- Unpackaged Hard Cheese
- Soft Cheese
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- Dairy Only Flavoured Milk Drinks
- Flavoured Milk Drinks with Fruit Juice
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- Fat-free Fresh Milk
- Semi Skimmed Fresh Milk
- Full Fat Fresh Milk
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- Fat-free Shelf Stable Milk
- Semi Skimmed Shelf Stable Milk
- Full Fat Shelf Stable Milk
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- Goat Milk
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- Powder Milk
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- Sour Milk Products
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- Drinking Yoghurt
- Flavoured Yoghurt
- Plain Yoghurt
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- Chilled Dairy Desserts
- Shelf Stable Dairy Desserts
- Chilled Snacks
- Coffee Whiteners
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- Flavoured Condensed Milk
- Plain Condensed Milk
- Evaporated Milk
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- Cream
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- Flavoured Fromage Frais and Quark
- Plain Fromage Frais and Quark
- Savoury Fromage Frais and Quark
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- Soy Drinks
- Other Plant-based Milk
- Plant-based Yoghurt
- Plant-based Cheese
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This report originates from Passport, our Dairy Products and Alternatives research and analysis database.
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