Dairy products and alternatives in 2025: The big picture
In 2025, dairy products and alternatives in New Zealand recorded steady value growth, largely driven by significant price inflation. Rising production and supply chain costs, alongside broader economic pressures, contributed to sustained increases in dairy prices. Additionally, strong global demand for New Zealand dairy exports further exacerbated price hikes for local consumers.
Key trends in 2025
Health and wellness remains a major driver of consumer behaviour in New Zealand's dairy industry, particularly within drinking milk, yoghurt, and cheese. Dairy products are widely recognised for their health benefits, commonly featuring claims related to protein, calcium, and probiotics for gut health. Among these, protein has gained increased relevance over the past decade, valued for its role in muscle growth and recovery, energy maintenance, and weight management. These health claims are actively influencing product innovation and development, as companies strive to remain competitive and retain consumer loyalty in a dynamic market.
Competitive Landscape
The competitive landscape in New Zealand has remained relatively stable in 2025, with Fonterra Brands (NZ) Ltd maintaining its leading position, accounting for nearly 20% of dairy products and alternatives. Furthermore, the company improved its share during the year, becoming one of the most dynamic players.
Channel developments
In 2025, the supermarket channel remained the primary location for consumers to purchase dairy products and alternatives in New Zealand. Milk, cheese, and yoghurt continue to be household staples, typically bought alongside regular grocery items. Supermarkets are the most accessible grocery outlet for the majority of consumers and, with frequent price promotions, remain highly competitive on pricing. Both price and quality are key drivers in attracting and retaining customers. The routine of grocery shopping at local supermarkets remains deeply ingrained, and many consumers feel comfortable continuing to purchase their dairy products as they always have.
What next for dairy products and alternatives?
Growth in dairy products and alternatives in New Zealand is expected to remain steady over the forecast period, although several factors may challenge future sales. Strong global demand for New Zealand dairy continues to drive up domestic prices, a trend that is expected to persist. Elevated pricing will make it increasingly difficult for consumers to afford everyday staples such as milk and cheese, and as a result, the recovery of volume growth is likely to be slow. Over the next five years, value growth will primarily be driven by higher unit prices rather than increased consumption. Despite continued interest in dairy due to its deep-rooted presence in households and its recognised health benefits, the economic climate will lead many consumers to reduce their typical dairy intake.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Dairy Products and Alternatives industry in New Zealand with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to a comprehensive range of core packaged food categories.
If you're in the Dairy Products and Alternatives industry in New Zealand, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Dairy Products and Alternatives in New Zealand report includes:
- Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
- Detailed segmentation of international and local products
- Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Dairy Products and Alternatives in New Zealand?
- Which are the leading brands in Dairy Products and Alternatives in New Zealand?
- How are products distributed in Dairy Products and Alternatives in New Zealand?
- How is the rise of e-commerce and/or the expansion of modern grocery retail impacting traditional retail?
- What are the key health and wellness concerns driving, or challenging, sales in Dairy Products and Alternatives?
- How significant are vegan and vegetarian dietary requirements in determining sales growth in New Zealand?
- How has COVID-19 impacted consumer demand? To what extent have lockdown, home seclusion and stockpiling boosted sales? Will the longer term economic repercussions of the pandemic stimulate or suppress future growth?
- Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
- How significant will values-based claims, such as sustainability and ethical labelling, be in supporting future growth and brand equity?
Dairy Products and Alternatives in New Zealand
Dairy products and alternatives in 2025: The big picture
Key trends in 2025
Competitive Landscape
Channel developments
What next for dairy products and alternatives?
DISCLAIMER
Baby Food in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Steady value growth due to stable demand for baby food and milk formula
Nutricia Ltd consolidating its stronger leadership position with its brand Karicare
Supermarkets remain the go-to destination for baby food and infant formula products
A positive outlook is expected, however, the declining birth rate will pose a challenge
Innovation through health and wellness may help differentiate brands
Retail e-commerce remains key for smaller businesses to find a niche customer base
Butter and Spreads in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Price continues to drive value growth as consumption of butter and spreads declines
Private labels benefit from lower price points amidst high inflation
Supermarkets remains the leading distribution channel for butter and spreads
Steady growth is expected as inflation eases and spending stabilises
Health concerns will remain a significant challenge for growth across the forecast period
The versatility of butter could drive growth as consumers seek cost-effective products
Cheese in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
High global demand drives up the price of cheese in New Zealand
Fonterra Brands (NZ) consolidates its leading position as a premier producer of New Zealand cheese
Supermarkets remain highly favoured by consumers as retail e-commerce increases its share
The high price of cheese is expected to support value growth over the forecast period
Cheese will be positioned as a healthy choice, aligning with rising demands
Rising opportunities for imported cheese amid rising local prices in New Zealand
Drinking Milk Products in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Rising prices drive value growth while consumers cut back on consumption
Foodstuffs (NZ) Ltd retains its lead while private label increases its share
Offline retailing remains prominent, however retail e-commerce gains ground
Demand for milk is expected to be tempered by price inflation and changing lifestyles
Health and wellness is set to remain a key focus of innovation and growth
Rebuilding consumers’ confidence amid environmental concerns in dairy
Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Price inflation drives growth for yoghurt and sour milk products during 2025
Goodman Fielder New Zealand leads, followed by Fonterra Brands NZ
Limited movement in distribution as consumers have a strong preference for offline retailing
Yoghurt and sour milk products are expected to record price-driven growth
Health and wellness claims are expected to help drive the performance of yoghurt
Potential growth opportunities for drinking yoghurt as a convenient alternative
Other Dairy in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Low-level growth due to high inflation and reduced consumer spending
Fonterra Brands (NZ) Ltd retains its lead of other dairy with its brand Anchor
Limited movement in distribution as most consumers prefer supermarkets
Decelerating growth expected for other dairy amidst declining consumer demand
Other dairy is set to face challenges aligning with health and wellness trends
Limited innovation and a stagnating competitive landscape may impact future growth
Plant-Based Dairy in New Zealand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Plant-based dairy products maintain strong growth with consistent consumer demand
Top brands maintain the leading positions while private label gains ground
Supermarkets lead distribution as convenience retailers gain ground
Ongoing demand for plant-based products is set to support steady growth
New product development is set to focus on enhancing the health benefits of plant-based dairy
Innovation is set to drive growth in plant-based dairy across the forecast period
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Dairy Products and Alternatives
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- Dried Baby Food
- Prepared Baby Food
- Other Baby Food
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- Liquid Standard Milk Formula
- Powder Standard Milk Formula
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- Liquid Follow-on Milk Formula
- Powder Follow-on Milk Formula
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- Liquid Growing-Up Milk Formula
- Powder Growing-Up Milk Formula
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- Liquid Special Baby Milk Formula
- Powder Special Baby Milk Formula
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- Butter
- Cooking Fats
- Margarine and Spreads
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- Spreadable Cheese
- Processed Cheese excl Spreadable
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- Packaged Hard Cheese
- Unpackaged Hard Cheese
- Soft Cheese
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- Dairy Only Flavoured Milk Drinks
- Flavoured Milk Drinks with Fruit Juice
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- Fat-free Fresh Milk
- Semi Skimmed Fresh Milk
- Full Fat Fresh Milk
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- Fat-free Shelf Stable Milk
- Semi Skimmed Shelf Stable Milk
- Full Fat Shelf Stable Milk
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- Goat Milk
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- Powder Milk
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- Sour Milk Products
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- Drinking Yoghurt
- Flavoured Yoghurt
- Plain Yoghurt
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- Chilled Dairy Desserts
- Shelf Stable Dairy Desserts
- Chilled Snacks
- Coffee Whiteners
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- Flavoured Condensed Milk
- Plain Condensed Milk
- Evaporated Milk
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- Cream
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- Flavoured Fromage Frais and Quark
- Plain Fromage Frais and Quark
- Savoury Fromage Frais and Quark
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- Soy Drinks
- Other Plant-based Milk
- Plant-based Yoghurt
- Plant-based Cheese
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This report originates from Passport, our Dairy Products and Alternatives research and analysis database.
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