PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Health and nutrition become key to innovation in baked goods
Over 2023 and 2024, rising unit prices drove higher levels of retail value sales growth on the baked goods landscape. Unit price growth of baked goods is expected to slow from 2025 onwards, leading retail sales to rise at a current value CAGR of 3% (2024 constant value CAGR of 1%).
Busier lifestyles set to boost snacking occasions over the forecast period
As consumers are expected to lead increasingly busy lifestyles over the next five years, many will dedicate less time to being at home, resulting in a notable rise in skipped breakfasts and a decline in demand for traditional breakfast cereals. Instead, there will be an ongoing shift towards snacking, perceived to be more convenient.
Traditional bakeries face increasing competition from supermarket chains
Throughout the forecast period, traditional bakeries in New Zealand will face increasing competition from modern retail channels, particularly as urbanisation rises. Around 87% of the population lives in cities, with many of these consumers using supermarket chains and providing convenient one-stop shopping for a wide range of goods, including bakery products.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Baked Goods industry in New Zealand with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to a comprehensive range of core packaged food categories.
If you're in the Baked Goods industry in New Zealand, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Baked Goods in New Zealand report includes:
- Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
- Detailed segmentation of international and local products
- Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Baked Goods in New Zealand?
- Which are the leading brands in Baked Goods in New Zealand?
- How are products distributed in Baked Goods in New Zealand?
- How is the rise of e-commerce and/or the expansion of modern grocery retail impacting traditional retail?
- What are the key health and wellness concerns driving, or challenging, sales in Baked Goods?
- How significant are vegan and vegetarian dietary requirements in determining sales growth in New Zealand?
- How has COVID-19 impacted consumer demand? To what extent have lockdown, home seclusion and stockpiling boosted sales? Will the longer term economic repercussions of the pandemic stimulate or suppress future growth?
- Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
- How significant will values-based claims, such as sustainability and ethical labelling, be in supporting future growth and brand equity?
Baked Goods in New Zealand - Category analysis
KEY DATA FINDINGS
The rising cost of living challenges retail volume sales of baked goods
Interest in gut health shapes innovations within flat bread
Traditional meets artisan in unpackaged bread
Health and nutrition become key to innovation in baked goods
Busier lifestyles set to boost snacking occasions over the forecast period
Traditional bakeries face increasing competition from supermarket chains
Staple Foods in New Zealand - Industry Overview
Staple foods in 2024: The big picture
Key trends in 2024
Competitive Landscape
Channel developments
What next for staple foods?
DISCLAIMER
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Baked Goods
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- Packaged Flat Bread
- Unpackaged Flat Bread
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- Packaged Leavened Bread
- Unpackaged Leavened Bread
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- Packaged Cakes
- Unpackaged Cakes
- Dessert Mixes
- Frozen Baked Goods
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- Packaged Pastries
- Unpackaged Pastries
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- Sweet Pies and Tarts
- Frozen Cakes, Sweet Pies and Tarts
Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: in most cases, baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal. While many such offerings may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which are often used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available. Baked goods baked from central bakeries sold unpackaged in other outlets are classified as unpackaged/artisanal. In the specific case of in-store bakery counters (for example, in supermarkets), if baked goods are finished on-site but then packaged (for example, in a box or bag) with a barcode and price, set out in the store for sale in this packaging and sold like any other packaged food product (i.e. a customer takes the packaged item from a shelf) then this is classified as packaged. If however the baked good is finished on-site, displayed unpackaged but then placed in packaging as part of the transaction (i.e. a supermarket worker at an in-store bakery counter/a customer places it in a box/bag after it has been chosen, to allow it to be carried safely) this is still classified as unpackaged.
See all of our definitionsWhy buy this report?
- Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
- Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
- Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions
This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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