COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Innovation through indulgence and seasonal rotation
Yamazaki Baking retained its leadership in baked goods in 2025, driven by its strong foothold in packaged leavened bread, cakes, and pastries. Its signature loaf bread, known as ShokuPan in Japan, is widely distributed across major grocery channels nationwide, including the company’s own convenience store chain, Daily Yamazaki.
Private label benefits from price rises as consumers tighten their belts
Major local bakery manufacturers and convenience stores drive baked goods innovation with near-constant new product development to maintain demand. Second-ranking Shikishima Baking Co Ltd executed a monthly launch cadence, rolling out health-oriented lines like Mugino Megumi (whole-grain series), alongside indulgent limited editions such as Yawaraka Kumamotosan Waguri Roll (Soft Kumamoto Japanese Chestnut Roll).
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Baked Goods industry in Japan with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to a comprehensive range of core packaged food categories.
If you're in the Baked Goods industry in Japan, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Baked Goods in Japan report includes:
- Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
- Detailed segmentation of international and local products
- Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Baked Goods in Japan?
- Which are the leading brands in Baked Goods in Japan?
- How are products distributed in Baked Goods in Japan?
- How is the rise of e-commerce and/or the expansion of modern grocery retail impacting traditional retail?
- What are the key health and wellness concerns driving, or challenging, sales in Baked Goods?
- How significant are vegan and vegetarian dietary requirements in determining sales growth in Japan?
- How has COVID-19 impacted consumer demand? To what extent have lockdown, home seclusion and stockpiling boosted sales? Will the longer term economic repercussions of the pandemic stimulate or suppress future growth?
- Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
- How significant will values-based claims, such as sustainability and ethical labelling, be in supporting future growth and brand equity?
Baked Goods in Japan - Category analysis
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Current value growth thanks to ongoing inflation
Domestic wheat in demand as costs rise
Dessert pies and tarts benefits from high prices and indulgence trend
Provenance set to remain in the spotlight
Focus on wellbeing likely to deepen in the years ahead
Baked goods expansion to continue through innovation and convenience trend
Innovation through indulgence and seasonal rotation
Private label benefits from price rises as consumers tighten their belts
Convenience stores leads distribution as local consumers splash out on indulgent baked goods
Health and beauty specialists sees growth as wellness trends deepen
Staple Foods in Japan - Industry Overview
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Sharp price increases fuel category volatility in 2025
Convenience factor remains important to busy consumers
Post-pandemic interest in health and wellbeing remains high
Shrinking population expected to lead to volume decline
Current value growth will remain largely driven by high prices
Convenience factor will continue to shape category fortunes
Yamazaki Baking retains the lead in a highly fragmented industry
Second-ranked player gains ground in 2025
Supermarkets remains the leading distribution channel in Japan
Health and beauty specialists and e-commerce are gaining popularity
COUNTRY REPORTS DISCLAIMER
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Baked Goods
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- Packaged Flat Bread
- Unpackaged Flat Bread
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- Packaged Leavened Bread
- Unpackaged Leavened Bread
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- Packaged Cakes
- Unpackaged Cakes
- Dessert Mixes
- Frozen Baked Goods
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- Packaged Pastries
- Unpackaged Pastries
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- Sweet Pies and Tarts
- Frozen Cakes, Sweet Pies and Tarts
Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: in most cases, baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal. While many such offerings may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which are often used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available. Baked goods baked from central bakeries sold unpackaged in other outlets are classified as unpackaged/artisanal. In the specific case of in-store bakery counters (for example, in supermarkets), if baked goods are finished on-site but then packaged (for example, in a box or bag) with a barcode and price, set out in the store for sale in this packaging and sold like any other packaged food product (i.e. a customer takes the packaged item from a shelf) then this is classified as packaged. If however the baked good is finished on-site, displayed unpackaged but then placed in packaging as part of the transaction (i.e. a supermarket worker at an in-store bakery counter/a customer places it in a box/bag after it has been chosen, to allow it to be carried safely) this is still classified as unpackaged.
See all of our definitionsWhy buy this report?
- Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
- Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
- Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions
This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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