COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
By balancing affordability with premiumisation, Tesco successfully caters to a wide spectrum of shopper preferences
Over 2025, Tesco is projected to see a marginal rise in retail value share to regain the leadership of baked goods in the UK from Warburtons. This performance is underpinned by an extensive product portfolio, competitive pricing and strategic focus on both premium and low-priced private label ranges.
Geary’s Bakeries invests strongly to see dynamic growth
Geary’s Bakeries is projected to post the highest growth in retail value sales over 2025. Its growth trajectory is driven by the success of Jason’s Sourdough, a brand capitalising on the rising interest in clean label, minimally processed baked goods.
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Overview:
Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Baked Goods industry in United Kingdom with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
Data and analysis in this report provides further detailed coverage dedicated to a comprehensive range of core packaged food categories.
If you're in the Baked Goods industry in United Kingdom, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
The Baked Goods in United Kingdom report includes:
- Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
- Detailed segmentation of international and local products
- Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
- Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
- Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country
This report answers:
- What is the market size of Baked Goods in United Kingdom?
- Which are the leading brands in Baked Goods in United Kingdom?
- How are products distributed in Baked Goods in United Kingdom?
- How is the rise of e-commerce and/or the expansion of modern grocery retail impacting traditional retail?
- What are the key health and wellness concerns driving, or challenging, sales in Baked Goods?
- How significant are vegan and vegetarian dietary requirements in determining sales growth in United Kingdom?
- How has COVID-19 impacted consumer demand? To what extent have lockdown, home seclusion and stockpiling boosted sales? Will the longer term economic repercussions of the pandemic stimulate or suppress future growth?
- Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
- How significant will values-based claims, such as sustainability and ethical labelling, be in supporting future growth and brand equity?
Baked Goods in the United Kingdom - Category analysis
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Retail current value sales grow yet inflationary pressures continue to challenge retail volume sales
Shift to higher-quality, convenient and authentic products
Pastries capitalise on indulgence and convenience trends
Baked goods to benefit as premiumisation and convenience aspects drive consumer demand
Health-focused innovation drives reformulation and portion-controlled launches
Premium formats to gain popularity as consumers seek restaurant-style experiences at home
By balancing affordability with premiumisation, Tesco successfully caters to a wide spectrum of shopper preferences
Geary’s Bakeries invests strongly to see dynamic growth
Hypermarkets retains leadership amidst growing challenges
Rapid development of e-commerce in baked goods distribution
Staple Foods in the United Kingdom - Industry Overview
Retail value over volume growth but there are bright spots in consumer demand
KEY DATA FINDINGS
Affordability drives shoppers
Convenience continues to win over consumers
International flavours abound as consumers seek authenticity
Healthier food trend to drive significant change across categories
Players still need to convince consumers to choose ultra-processed foods
Sustainability as a growth driver and differentiator
Tesco balances quality with affordability to lead the field
Private label and newer branded players continue to gain traction in staple foods
Hypermarkets lead but the competition intensifies
E-commerce continues to gain strategic importance
COUNTRY REPORTS DISCLAIMER
The following categories and subcategories are included:
Baked Goods
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- Packaged Flat Bread
- Unpackaged Flat Bread
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- Packaged Leavened Bread
- Unpackaged Leavened Bread
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- Packaged Cakes
- Unpackaged Cakes
- Dessert Mixes
- Frozen Baked Goods
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- Packaged Pastries
- Unpackaged Pastries
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- Sweet Pies and Tarts
- Frozen Cakes, Sweet Pies and Tarts
Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: in most cases, baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal. While many such offerings may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which are often used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available. Baked goods baked from central bakeries sold unpackaged in other outlets are classified as unpackaged/artisanal. In the specific case of in-store bakery counters (for example, in supermarkets), if baked goods are finished on-site but then packaged (for example, in a box or bag) with a barcode and price, set out in the store for sale in this packaging and sold like any other packaged food product (i.e. a customer takes the packaged item from a shelf) then this is classified as packaged. If however the baked good is finished on-site, displayed unpackaged but then placed in packaging as part of the transaction (i.e. a supermarket worker at an in-store bakery counter/a customer places it in a box/bag after it has been chosen, to allow it to be carried safely) this is still classified as unpackaged.
See all of our definitionsWhy buy this report?
- Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
- Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
- Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions
This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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